thisisit

Big tech can get waiver from DHS.

Cheap labor exists because there is a demand for it. Body shops don't pay those wages - companies who hire those bodies from body shops do. So, body shops are going to raise prices accordingly.

"You need someone to manage your Oracle/SAP ERP systems and do a horrible job of it? And that person needs to be here locally? That will be an extra $60k from our last contract because we cannot bring in cheap bodies now." (assuming they eat $40k of the costs)

In the meantime rural medical centers will be devasted because many teams are made of H1B doctors.

H1B certainly requires more government oversight. But doing their jobs or applying critical thinking skills isn't a criteria for this administration.

> A $100k per year fee doesn't fix that, but it does make them so expensive that they are really only viable for $300k+ positions

It also incentivizes the CTO to promote a cost saving measure. For any job that doesn't absolutely require onshore presence, lets move it offshore. We can save 100k per position and also retain talent.

Companies have been offshoring jobs due to the tax rule change. Personally I know lot of Google teams which have been offshored. So, I don't understand why people think this will somehow cause job retention. Some jobs might be retained and more will be lost. Acting as if this $100k is somehow a good idea shows lack of understanding of how real world works.

In the meantime, rural medical teams who employ H1B doctors will be decimated. But before that these pesky billion dollar companies need to be taught a lesson.

To add lot of people don't seem to have read the full announcement. It says Secretary of Homeland Security can grant exception. That means companies like Tesla are more likely to get a pass - because manufacturing jobs and what not.

Also, HN is hyper focused on tech consulting. H1Bs are used by doctors too especially in rural America. Doctors apply for J1 waiver and then get H1B for work. From what I have heard some places the only available doctor is an immigrant on H1B. This is going to devastate medical teams.

This is such bad policy making. Its like using a cannon to kill a mosquito. And for a party which idolizes the founding fathers these people seem to have forgotten the lesson from Benjamin Franklin. They went from letting 100 criminals go than make 1 person suffer to punishing 100 criminals to full extent of the law and then justify the action if 1 innocent is presented. End justify the means.

And for anyone who is supporting this - Sorry to burst your bubble but just like everything done by this admin so far it is not going to tide over the American job problem.

First, Secretary of Homeland Security has a discretion. It means companies can graft/lobby him to get exception. Maybe shops like Infosys might not get one but Tesla can get one under the garb of supporting American manufacturing.

Second, companies are going to find ways to get that exception. Consulting shops can always open a subsidiary with all American front and lobby for exception.

Third, consulting shops can always bill their customers - maybe partial amounts - that is American companies. Or they can encourage to offshore even more. "You can now save $X + 100k if you offshore".

So and so forth. You need a thoughtful policy not a blunt instrument like this.

As I posted in another thread people seem to be stuck on this point.

Lets agree - some H1B was exploited by sweat shop consultancies who pay less than Americans. And this might be incredible for Americans looking for work.

But in what world does this kind of policy implementation is justified? How is this a functioning bureaucracy in a functioning democracy where people can suffer like this?

I see this point being made a lot.

Lets be clear - the election was won on inflation. While a lot was said about 47th's previous record it was often brushed aside with - Sure, this was said last time too and he didn't do any of this. Its the same thing all over again, people crying wolf etc. There was even consternation about Project 2025 and many well minded people didn't believe it would be enacted.

Now the approval rating on handling of economy continues to fall day by day. Immigration was the strongest suit at +10 is now under water at -4.5.

That means while voters might have wanted something to be done about immigration but they might not wanted more of this. This will become clear only during the midterm elections. With all the efforts being made to gerrymander and gain as many seats as possible, it is good guess to say GOP also realize that people didn't want more of this - and the only way now is to hold on to power by any means necessary.

So, that it allows others to say - This government was elected in Nov 2024 and if they are doing this terrible thing then surely people have voted for this.

Consumerism and apathy is the main problem.

People just wanted cheap goods while not caring how the sausage was made. People didn't care to understand the long term damage just that today's needs should be served. Then companies learned that they can/need recruit 10x cheaper in other countries to make it cheaper that is what they did.

Now the apathy shoe is on the other foot. This government's action have ensured there cannot be any study to show impact of these rules in an impartial manner. Everything has to be for or against these rules. That means people don't care to understand the long term damage just that today's needs should be served.

As always with this administration using a cannon to kill a mosquito for the right reasons. And then people debating the reason rather than the cannon.

The logic from this administration and it’s supporters is opposite of Benjamin Franklin. Rather than thinking that it is better a hundred guilty persons should escape than one innocent person should suffer. They think it is better a hundred guilty persons be punished than one innocent person’s suffering. We have seen this from the South Korea detainees debacle and here too.

There is fraud in H1B system. People do take advantage of it. People do suffer from ghost jobs. But the question at the heart of the matter is what is the basis for a flat 100k fee? Because lots of numbers from this administration seem to be pulled out from thin air. There are reasons fines are set low in comparison to a company revenue but POTUS doesn’t seem to know.

It’s amazing to me that every time something like this happens some people paint it as some grand conspiracy and 4D chess move involving a large set of people. It’s like 4chan leaking all over the Internet.

App cloning has existed forever. When Flappy Bird took off you could find dozens of similar clones. You could buy app templates from various websites to spin your own version of Flappy Bird. This has always been an issue for solo or indie apps because the apps are simpler, require couple of days to code and don't have money to fight copyright lawsuits.

There are app shops based in Eastern Europe and Asia - which can get an app up and running in matter of days. Some even sell done for you (DFY) services where they will find hot apps and clone it for you for a fixed amount. The idea being they get a steady stream of income and it is up to the buyer to ensure the app takes off and makes money over and above the amount paid to these services. This always mean apps have 7-day free trial with a subscription tacked on.

As for app curation Apple's interest is in having more apps and more developer revenue. It is same nearly every marketplace type sites.

When an app is simple and commoditized then moat depends on all of the things you mentioned.

Marketing is often a differentiator when you build a brand. For example there are tons of personal development coaches out there. But you know only few like Tony Robbins etc because of the marketing blitz and the brand name.

You can build a brand by actively participating with your users such that they prefer your app over the clones. Find ways to get into an Apple featured lists.

You can add features. But this might run into an issue of a bloated app with features no wants to use.

Even the best of people can fall for scams. It depends on how much you need the money. No one starts off thinking they are going to be scammed. The design ensures people enter this trap slowly. When people are hesitant they are given a taste of success - the 500%. Some people tap out here. Others want to continue to try their luck. But often they are stopped with reverse psychology that there are no low pay jobs and they need to pitch in more money.

> It's definitely interesting how in anonymous forums there's a lot more people pointing out that they think this is hype whereas when we wear our professional hats many of us join in

I have seen that in anonymous forums there's a lot more people pointing out that they think this is transformative like say early smartphones.

When it comes to wearing professional hats people fall into two categories.

People who are using it outside their expertise area. Things they had to previously rely on others like back end operations. They gush about it - praising the technology as if they have discovered smartphones. Only when they use it for their expertise area they realize that AI might not be all it is hyped to be and that they need to be cautiously optimistic.

Then there are people who are using it within their expertise area. Like vibe coding. There are people who gush about it. But there are more who are cautiously optimistic. They will tell you it works but in a contained environment.

This government has made big spectacle and promises on deportation. Though the government has seemingly denied there are reports that field offices need to make 75 arrests per day and failing to do so will lead to "accountability": https://immpolicytracking.org/policies/report-ice-directed-t...

This means there is a huge incentive to create spectacle out of arrests. So, that in case the field office lags behind, they can always point to the photo op - See how hard we were working there?

This might not hurt the government politically because supporters can see those hard hats and exclaim - See they were wearing hard hats, how were they not breaking the law?

But at the cost of creating an unnecessary diplomatic crisis. Even if there were visa issues, this puts South Korean government in a bind - they need to answer to their constituents. Being seen as incompetent and unable to save its citizen abroad is a sensitive topic in many countries.

Investments might be impacted as well. It seems to me that many Trump supporters think international politics requires blustering. But much of the work happens behind the scenes.

What evidence is there that politicians or GOP today formulate policy only on these three things?

Media and GOP have talked about other items like immigration, taxes etc which impact the economy.

And if this is about metrics then GDP, budget deficits etc are also economic metrics talked about in the media.

Investment returns have been falling across the board. A good guide on how to invest:

https://www.amazon.com/Investing-Amid-Low-Expected-Returns/d...

You do know economic data is not used only by "economists", right? Given that you seem to dislike the word "economic" data, focus only on the data part. Tell us how politicians/policy makers run the country without data? How do they know rates have to be increased/decreased if they don't have such numbers? Through wishful and magical thinking about focusing on the basics?

Today's economy is all about politics. There are people who still hold out hope or confuse economic data with economist. Populism >>>> good policy. No one wants to be the next Volcker. So, this is likely going to stagflation. I hope I am wrong because this can be ripple effects all over the world.

> Nobody should be making policy on this yet, but it's the kind of thing that I would allocate some research dollars to if I hadn't just fired all of the competent researchers.

Yes but that is the whole RFK brand. He and his supporters always try to have their cake and eat it too. Claim something, things go wrong and blame others for misconstruing RFK's comments.

The way this is going - RFK is going to make claims based on this paper and when people get harmed, he and his supporters will claim that people who followed RFK's assertion didn't hear him correctly. He clearly said the policy was based on this paper and people should have done more research and read this paper. See this paper says there is correlation and not causation. So, you cannot blame RFK for this mishap.

Apart from the infamous timing the market, there are two adages to keep in mind - the stock market is not the economy and markets can remain irrational for a long time.

The whole tariff cycle has been irrational move. The tariffs were supposedly "removed" even when it was not - there was always a 10% default tariff. Maybe everyone is expecting a rate cut due to this tariff madness.

This is an attempt to do repeat what countries like Turkey like tried. They often think cut interest rates -> increase demand -> better employment.

But often they find that combination of worsening inflation and unemployment matched with cutting interest rates is a bad situation to be in. There is often no good way to come out of this. You end up in a cycle of : High unemployment -> cut rates -> employment improves but causes hyperinflation -> increase rates to cool markets -> high employment.

Blunt tariffs is playing a large part. and once Jerome Powell leaves and replaced by a crony is when the real problem will start.

This seems like the age old discussion of how does new technology changes our lives and makes us "lazy" or "lack of learning".

Before the advent of smartphones people needed to remember phone numbers of their loved ones and maybe do some small calculations on the fly. Now people sometimes don't even remember their own numbers and have it saved on their phones.

Now some might want to debate how smartphones are different from LLMs and it is not the same. But we have to remember for better or worse LLM adoption has been fast and it has become consumer technology. That is the area being discussed in the article. People using it to write essays. And those who might be using the label of "prompt bros" might be missing the full picture. There are people, however small, being helped by LLMs as there were people helped by smartphones.

This is by no means a defense for using LLMs for learning tasks. If you write code by yourself, you learn coding. If you write your essays yourself, you learn how to make a solid points.

One of my job postings, I got over 100 applications. Most people weren't even tangentially related. They were spraying and praying. Worse yet, I had to screen everything by hand. A rather tedious job and made worse by Taleo. And as much I understand why people don't want AI screening and my company strictly prohibits it - by the end I was begging for one.

Finally, not even one application was matching the job profile and many had used AI to misrepresent their skill.

My company has a policy that once a position has to be opened, I need to fill it within 6 months. So, fed up I had to work with HR to message people on Linkedin.

This has basically dissuaded me using the spray and pray or AI generated resumes, if and when I start my job hunt.

> However, the New Delhi court was never able to make a decision on the matter. The hearings about Sci-Hub were re-scheduled again and again over the course of months and years

Unfortunately this is a common tactic - get a ruling which favors you and then file for delays citing sometimes ridiculous excuse. There is no concept of "justice delayed is justice denied" - lot of cases stay in limbo.

>I'm aware that although the interim order to block the websites was passed, the case itself is not settled. There are currently intervenors in the case, that you can join.

The tactic will remain the same. Keep the case in limbo.

That said, people have the jugaad-mindset so, you can bet if this goes through people will find ways to circumvent at massive scale.

AI searches being browsed by AI bots. Reminds me of the scene from Silicon Valley: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2TpSWVN4zkg

Repeating my comment. That is not how this works.

Governments ask for something like a metal spectrometer analysis of components. They might even say each batch needs to be analyzed and we trust analysis from spectrometers manufactured and/or operated in US. Each condition raising the price for certificate/analysis even more.

Or directly from the post

> U.S. customs is demanding a Certificate of Analysis (which could cost thousands of dollars and to determine what exact amount of Aluminum, Copper and Steel are in the product), otherwise they assume the entire PCB consists of copper, aluminum, and steel, and charge a 100% tariff on the whole product.

That is not how this works. No one can say - we used spreadsheet software and investigated ourselves and we estimate we use x mg of copper. Governments ask for something like a metal spectrometer analysis of components. They might even say each batch needs to be analysed and we trust analysis from spectrometers manufactured and/or operated in US. Each condition raising the price for certificate/analysis even more.

> No longer are they just making knock offs of Western products with stolen IP. BYD for example seems genuinely innovative, a top product. There are many other examples.

I think many people really underestimate this part. If you watch Back to the Future, they sort of deride Japanese goods as cheap knock offs. Later Japanese became an innovation powerhouse. Same thing happened with China. Previously derided for low quality knock-offs is now known for innovation.

No one seems to have the state-run enterprise explanation for Japan but everyone does with China. Because of Chinese Law. While state help is necessary for companies to succeed that alone is not enough.

In the long term small improvements can enable innovation. But if you get stuck on coasting on laurels for a long time it leads to decline in innovation and especially motivation. And when I mean not only in releasing new products but also in manufacturing and other related areas.

I always surprised that people defending these tariffs don't see the conflicting defenses.

The default defense comes from Trump who has - since 1980s has pushed for tariffing other countries to raise government revenue. The idea being - America drives lot of market demand. This seems to ignore basic economic facts. Importers pay tariffs and also that corporates are all about profit maximization.

Companies might eat some of the tariffs in short term but they will always reduce costs in long term. That means jacking up prices slowly, finding ways to circumvent tariffs, using low cost - maybe even harmful but unbanned substitutes in products to name a few. Even the domestic company has a reason to hike up prices just below the price of imported goods. And also, because there is less competition domestic company might even reduce R&D because they can continue to rake in profits from local markets.

The second defense is around domestic companies. I don't think anyone will disagree that each country needs to protect its most crucial domestic industries. But in those cases tariffs ae a precision tool, not a hammer. Tariffing everything doesn't make sense except it goes back to original defense - the point is to raise revenue.

Next step, Feds need to lower the interest rates.

Everything has to be produced on an assembly line. No mistakes allowed. Especially creativity. /s