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tinkerrr

682 karma · joined May 13, 2014

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tinkerrr··on John McAfee announces he's running for President
Why is Bernie Sanders and exception to your rule?
tinkerrr··on Online Cheating Site AshleyMadison Hacked
Extortion predates Bitcoin
tinkerrr··on Code Specialists Oppose U.S. and British Access to Encrypted Communication
Are you sure about that? http://www.globalresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/wadd...

http://www.theweeklings.com/wp-content/uploads/US-Military-B...

tinkerrr··on Cameron reaffirms there will be no “safe spaces” from UK government snooping
You mean the biggest internet names will no longer operate in almost any of the developed world?
tinkerrr··on Is it better to buy or rent?
You don't get money back from renting. It's an expense, just like any other. However, you don't have to tie in 20% of say $500,000 into a home at 0% return. Over a long period of time, your return on this would be expected to be a little over 8% annual returns, based on S&Ps historic return rates.
tinkerrr··on Is it better to buy or rent?
This is a very common fallacy and I am surprised people still think 'renting is throwing your cash out the window'. It isn't.

With a mortgage, you're essentially leveraging around 1:5, which means you put down your 20%ish and get 100% of an asset. If the asset moves down 20%, your net equity is worth exactly 0. If the asset moves up 20%, you've made a profit of 100% (simplified, not considering the fees and other costs).

The trick to understand this is, if you put your down-payment money somewhere else, like a long-term index fund, what kinds of profits would you have expected? What about the risk, considering you're highly leveraged in a mortgage?

Thus the calculator to do the math for you.

tinkerrr··on A venture capital firm says it invests in people “pre-idea, pre-team”
> 10% of applicants are accepted after multiple rounds of interviews and even a logics and computing test.

It's interesting to note that they are trying to hire entrepreneurs the same way Google was trying to hire programmers 10 years ago.

tinkerrr··on The Warren Buffett Next Door
The kind of ignorance going into the title is baffling. They picked some guy who saw a gain of 27% across 5 positions, for perhaps a few years at the most, and think he's the Warren Buffet next door.
tinkerrr··on Ross Ulbricht Sentenced to Life in Prison
In addition to the murders for hire that the other commentators mentioned, the prosecution presented 6 case studies of people dying because of drug overdoses/other related effects of drugs bought on silk road. The prosecution also had two parents in two of these cases come to court to give a statement, one from Boston and one from Australia.
tinkerrr··on How Fake Money Saved Brazil (2010)
A somewhat similar pricing mechanism seems to be developing today for payments in Bitcoin. Very few things you can buy in Bitcoin are actually price denominated in Bitcoin. You'll see things selling for $25 worth of Bitcoin, rather than 0.1 BTC, considering the historic volatility. Almost all merchants accepting Bitcoin use the USD as a base pricing denomination.
tinkerrr··on Ask HN: Has anyone made money on Amazon Mechanical Turk?
Check out the subreddit, which sometimes has useful discussion on this topic: http://www.reddit.com/r/mturk Also, I must concur with gwintrob, it's better to look for freelance gigs that will pay more than AMT. Just browse through Upwork and see if any categories make sense to you. Not all of it is very specialized
tinkerrr··on Show HN: Review my startup – a blogging platform
"Average page creation time of 5 milliseconds"

I know what you mean, but from a writer's perspective, page creation is all about the time it takes her to create a page, which is, in general, several orders of magnitude more than 5 milliseconds.

The product looks quite good at first sight. I couldn't find pricing information though, which would be a very important factor in a decision to move to your platform.

tinkerrr··on The Mind of Marc Andreessen
Ten on Thirty means $10M invested in a company currently being valued at $30M (before their investment, or pre-money valuation), so the whole company is valued at $30M + $10M = $40M after the investment.

Ten on Fifteen/Twenty means $10M invested in a company currently being valued at $15M/$20M, so the valuation after the investment would be $25M/$30M.

tinkerrr··on Bitcoin Exchange Receives First License in New York State
That's not really true for Coinbase Exchange, which is real-time. You don't need to wait for a week, just buy/sell at the spot price. No pricing delays, no "market maker prices", which was rightly pointed out by the OP to be front-running and no other gimmicks. Also, no Singapore arbitration.
tinkerrr··on NYC Pension Earns $40M Over 10 Years, Pays Fund Managers $2B
The New York Times article seems to be talking about the extra gain, which I presume means gain in addition to beating the benchmark. Here's the quote:

"Over the last 10 years, the return on those “public asset classes” has surpassed expectations by more than $2 billion, according to the comptroller’s analysis. But nearly all of that extra gain — about 97 percent — has been eaten up by management fees".

I read this as meaning that the extra gain meaning gain minus benchmark gain was $2B and most of it was eaten by fees (which is still bad, but not as bad as the article and its title seem to suggest).

tinkerrr··on [dead]
Don't you think everyone will be better off in using a decentralized reputation/review management system? How many centralized solutions are we going to see in the arbitration space? What's different about your service than the half dozen other marketplaces for arbitrators?
tinkerrr··on Apple Is Now More Than Double the Size of Exxon–And Everyone Else
When a company buys back shares, the number of outstanding shares decreases. That's the whole reason for buying back shares. See http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/112013/impact... for a basic introduction to share buybacks.
tinkerrr··on Apple Is Now More Than Double the Size of Exxon–And Everyone Else
Prices are always split adjusted, so that is meaningless. My point is, price and market cap are not related that way.
tinkerrr··on Apple Is Now More Than Double the Size of Exxon–And Everyone Else
> is a 30% stock jump from becoming the first trillion-dollar company

This is incorrect. The reason is share buybacks, which Apple has been aggressive with. Remember, when the price was $100 last (split adjusted), its market capitalization was $700 billion. Today, it's price is $130, but the market capitalization is not $900 billion, but only $765 billion. This is because the number of shares outstanding has gone down significantly.

In this scenario, the price and market capitalization will not increase by the same percentage. In fact, it is possible for Apple to have a very good price return with no increase in market capitalization at all (consider it generates a lot of free cash flow to buy back stock).

tinkerrr··on Let's stop laughing at Groupon
Funny how every single 'right' thing they did benefits the early owners only and no one who buys the company stock thereafter. Successful companies are seldom built on the principle of maximizing value for yourself while handing lemons down to the next person foolish enough to invest in your company.
tinkerrr··on Online Storage Company Box Has Strong Debut in First Day of Trading
>Those last two major investors lost a lot of money.

Depends, actually, on how much of their stock they sold at the IPO price. Box is already trading above the last round valuation even though the IPO was priced below it.

tinkerrr··on Online Storage Company Box Has Strong Debut in First Day of Trading
>Who is buying this stock?! and

>I haven't dug deeply into their financials or anything.

should be mutually exclusive, don't you think? If you haven't looked at their financials or anything, how do you know whether it is a good investment or not? You can't just look at 'macro-trends' and determine if individual companies are a buy or not.

e.g. since 1970s, cigarette industry has been in a steady volume decline. Guess which stock has been (by far) the best performing stock during since that period? Yep, Philip Morris (which recently split into Altria and Philip Morris)

tinkerrr··on “I paid $25 for an Invisible Boyfriend, and I think I might be in love”
> Even so, I can't imagine this app could possible be worth the time

I think that's why the founder is talking of expanding the service already, such as getting flowers on Valentine's, say. It might provide social worth to some, who see this extravaganza displayed on every other desk at their work.

tinkerrr··on Dogs, but Not Wolves, Use Humans as Tools
Becoming human food is an evolutionary strategy for animals?
tinkerrr··on Bitshares Login
A counter-view to just how awesome Bitshares is (I don't fully agree with the article, and I am not the author): http://prestonbyrne.com/2014/08/17/dont-walk-away-run/
tinkerrr··on An Orangutan Has Some Human Rights, Argentine Court Rules
I think you mean pescatarians and not vegetarians. By definition, vegetarians don't eat fish.
tinkerrr··on Show HN: Nvestly, Never Invest Alone
If long-term investors are basing investment decisions on what their friends are investing in, they need to rethink their entire investing philosophy and strategy. Heck, Buffet's trades are public - if you had to choose between the two, would you rather mimic Buffet's trades or would you rather mimic your friends? Or 5 of your favorite investors instead of 5 of your friends?
tinkerrr··on Show HN: Nvestly, Never Invest Alone
Maybe I didn't phrase my question right. What I want to know is, as an investor, why should I use your service? Personally, I don't see much value in knowing what my friends are investing in. There are 10,000 stocks, I cannot follow them all anyway. As an investor, the only thing that I am interested in is increasing my returns. Everything else is secondary. So my question is not whether markets are efficient (we'll leave that to the academics) but whether you believe your service, in some way, would help investors improve their returns. If the answer is no, the product, from the very start, will be very limited in scope (e.g. only the investing newbies and other such small segments would get a benefit).

Reporting-wise, I am with you. I think the current models are antiquated, and most of the solutions I see are outright wrong (Hint: If you're looking only at stock prices for returns, you're doing it wrong too).

tinkerrr··on Show HN: Nvestly, Never Invest Alone
Honest and serious question - what's the purpose of this service? Do you think an investor will get higher returns if he knows what his friends are buying? What experts are buying? It seems to me that no serious investor would ever need this type of a service. I understand it's cool to make everything social, but I can get absolutely no useful information from this aspect.

The reporting side can definitely be very cool though, and it could provide serious benefits if done right.

tinkerrr··on Ask HN: How do I build and grow human network?
What are you good at, and what's your definition of fun? Once you've figured that out, go to Meetups related to those fields and you'll meet some people. Grow your network by meeting their friends, and so on. It requires patience and time, of course.
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