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tomhoward

10,495 karma · joined October 30, 2007

YC W09.
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tomhoward··on Agricultural drones are transforming rice farming in the Mekong River delta
The other issue is the ability to respond to extreme heat quickly enough.

We work with fruit growers in South Eastern Australia where temperatures routinely hit high 30s and even low-mid 40s (°C) a few days each year.

Those growers want to see our soil moisture data readings updated every 15 minutes so they can turn the drippers on very quickly as soon as the soil starts drying out rapidly.

It would just be too slow to rely on robots driving up and down the rows in those conditions.

tomhoward··on Agricultural drones are transforming rice farming in the Mekong River delta
Yes, that’s how it’s done now, but it’s a matter of the precision vs cost tradeoff.

Right now it costs about $750-$3000 to set up each monitoring site, so growers can only afford to install a low number of devices per acre [1], thus a high number of plants per device. In that case you’re not optimizing to anywhere the specific requirements of each plant, you’re assuming (often falsely) that all the plants in that area have the same needs as the one you’re monitoring.

The lower the cost per device, the higher your resolution and precision of monitoring can be, and the more you can accurately provide for the specific needs of each plant.

[1] Very often that number is zero.

tomhoward··on Agricultural drones are transforming rice farming in the Mekong River delta
Yep, mesh networking is the plan:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40740278

tomhoward··on Agricultural drones are transforming rice farming in the Mekong River delta
Yeah I think that's right. It's a matter of trading off the water cost savings (and produce quality/yield gains) per plant vs unit cost per device, to determine the optimal density of devices.

As I said in the previous comment, right now, high-value crop growers like wine grape growers pay $700-$1000 or more per site (including reader/comms module and sensors), and generally only install one monitoring point per block (I have a system running at one of Australia's top boutique/biodynamic wine makers and at current prices he can only cost-justify having one 10 monitoring sites over his 70 acres of vines).

So, whatever we can do to drive down the cost to $20 or less should deliver big wins.

> Maybe talk to someone at Nordic

Yep, we're working with hardware engineers who are well connected to people at Nordic.

tomhoward··on Agricultural drones are transforming rice farming in the Mekong River delta
Well I already have a firmware version that can run in a few KB, which my father developed in Motorola assembly and that ran most of the soil moisture monitoring devices sold to the big-volume wine grape producers in Australia (mostly in Riverland SA supplying Treasury etc) from the late 90s till about 2010, after which newer products using Zigbee and cellular IoT took over (though we worked together on our own newer versions supporting Bluetooth LE and Cat-M1 up until his retirement a couple of years ago).

I hear you that $20 is high - but the status quo in this business now is monitoring devices that sell for AUD $600+, and with LTE-M or LoRa comms modules that cost over AUD $60 alone.

I'm forever thinking about ways you could drive the cost down further. I'd love it if there were a way to get the on-plant modules under $1. Feel free to get in touch if you want to discuss further.

tomhoward··on Agricultural drones are transforming rice farming in the Mekong River delta
LoRa gets talked about plenty for ag monitoring, and sure it can be great for certain use cases. Optional support for LoRa is certainly something we want to support (via device variants or plug-on comms modules).

For the use case invoked in this subthread (an individual monitoring device on each plant), I don’t think it’s the best.

We’re currently working with Nordic nRF52xx/53xx/54xx modules, which have dual ARM cores and built-in 2.4GHz radio, so, support for protocols like Bluetooth Mesh, Zibgee, Thread.

That means you can have a single module that can handle mesh comms with neighboring devices, as well as sensor reading, machine learning and output control. You wouldn’t need a separate comms module to communicate back to a base station or a high post and antenna for long-range comms. So it offers big savings on the device production side and the installation time/cost side.

tomhoward··on Agricultural drones are transforming rice farming in the Mekong River delta
I’ve always been supportive of open-source and plan to make much of our tech open source [1], but I’m not seeing anything on their site that’s anything like what we’re doing (it alls seems to be large machinery, no microelectronics).

The thing about this field that I’ve learned over the decade I’ve been involved is that creating the tech is less than half the challenge; the distribution - building awareness, selling it, installing it, maintaining it - is a huge undertaking, and a lot of money needs to come from somewhere to make that viable.

[1] I’d like to have a RTOS to run on these devices that is as approachable and familiar as common Linux distros like Ubuntu, for people to install and customise themselves, with a full open source license.

tomhoward··on Agricultural drones are transforming rice farming in the Mekong River delta
In case anyone’s reading this who is interested in working on it:

I’m building a company/platform that does a lot of this, particularly the “metering just the right amount of water for each individual plant” part.

The thing I have in mind is very low cost devices (sub-$20) with mesh radio comms, inputs to read from sensors and outputs to control irrigation, and TinyML running the devices to optimize everything in real time.

I have about 10 years experience working in the field (mostly with high-value crops like wine grapes, nuts, avocados) and several iterations of prototype devices and web software, but am keen to attract people who are excited at the idea of working on this kind of thing.

Anyone - particularly low-level programmers or hardware engineers - interested in working on it can contact me (email in bio).

tomhoward··on Do not try to be the smartest in the room; try to be the kindest
The problem with content like this is it’s not realistically actionable for most people: it really amounts to saying (if you’re not already a temperamentally kind person), “fundamentally change your personality”, without offering actionable steps to accomplish that.

It also doesn’t wrestle at all with the complexities and tradeoffs of how we deal with people in different scenarios. Be kind to bullies and assholes? There’s a way to do it, sure, but there’s a lot of technique and nuance involved, and this post doesn’t scratch the surface.

tomhoward··on I got tired of hearing that YC fired Sam, so here's what actually happened
All you have to do is look at the fact that PG has been consistently effusive about Sam in his public comments and essays since the mid 00s through till the present day, for it to be clear that Sam wasn’t simply fired.

Of course these situations are always complex behind the scenes, with many factors and considerations at play.

But the no he must really just have been fired against his will claim just doesn’t pass the sniff test to anyone paying attention.

tomhoward··on I got tired of hearing that YC fired Sam, so here's what actually happened
Or the adult conversation was: you need to pick one thing to focus on, we’d prefer it was YC but obviously we can’t force you to choose YC.

PG’s telling if it, and Occam’s Razer, support that version.

Many people here want to imagine that it was vastly more dramatic than this, or need to reinterpret the word “fired” to support the narrative that Sam is bad. I understand it can be fun to think that way.

For the record I’m no great fan of OpenAI and I think people who are convinced they are about to achieve AGI are, er, mistaken. I mostly just care about correct definitions of words and avoiding sensationalism.

tomhoward··on I got tired of hearing that YC fired Sam, so here's what actually happened
OK, it was independent but established with funding from YC Research and Jessica (among others including Sam himself and Elon) and initially operating from YC office space.

So it was always something that was closely linked to YC and his involvement with it was generally accepted as being harmonious with his role running YC, until it became for-profit.

Details here:

https://www.wired.com/2015/12/how-elon-musk-and-y-combinator...

tomhoward··on I got tired of hearing that YC fired Sam, so here's what actually happened
Fired means or at least connotes a specific thing, I.e., is against the will of the departing employee. Leaving the organisation by mutual agreement after an adult conversation to focus on exciting new project is a very different thing to fired.
tomhoward··on I got tired of hearing that YC fired Sam, so here's what actually happened
Right, so, no evidence that they had no problem with him running Worldcoin. It could all have been part of the “Sam now has too much on his plate to adequately focus on YC” conversation.
tomhoward··on I got tired of hearing that YC fired Sam, so here's what actually happened
> Sounds like they were fine with him moonlighting other projects

Even that’s not quite right. OpenAI had been a research project inside YC. So there was no “moonlighting” about it (and Worldcoin started around the same time Sam left YC).

It seems everyone accepted that things qualitatively changed when OpenAI stopped being a non-profit research project inside YC to becoming a for-profit venture, and they just had an adult conversation about it.

tomhoward··on I got tired of hearing that YC fired Sam, so here's what actually happened
> They didn’t seem to mind him running Worldcoin though

He left YC in March 2019. Worldcoin was formed in 2019.

tomhoward··on Trickle-down economics were always bullshit
Yep, I read the paper too, then spent quite some time Googling various combinations of “commercial paper”, “fed”, “reaganomics”, “trickle down”, and other more tenuous terms, yielding nothing at all of any substance. More fool me I guess.
tomhoward··on Trickle-down economics were always bullshit
> Read up on commercial paper

Ok, yep, it’s a common trick in these kinds of discussions to link to a vaguely-related article with a directive to “read up” on the topic but without any commentary on how it specifically supports any claims being made. Really it’s just a giveaway that there’s no substantive point being put forward.

tomhoward··on Trickle-down economics were always bullshit
> So much simping for neofeudalism

Nothing could be less true of my philsophies and my hoped outcomes for the work I've utterly exhausted myself doing for over a decade.

> the rich are showered with cash

This is the giveaway of your own ideological animus. What does this even mean in any real context?

Even if anybody's true priority was for the rich to be as enriched as possible, any half-sentient politician, economist or rich person knows that the rich can only become richer if ordinary people have enough money to buy stuff from them, so, nobody benefits from impoverishment of the masses. Without that recognition, there's no hope of a sensible discussion about the topic of what economic approach will actually deliver outcomes that are the most efficient and fair.

tomhoward··on Trickle-down economics were always bullshit
"Trickle-down economics" is not any kind of formal economic or political philosophy, it's a pejorative term designed to trivialise free market/laissez-faire economic policies.

It's fair enough to criticise free market/laissez-faire economic policies; they have their limitations and trade-offs, just like every other economic philosophy. But this article doesn't contain any serious economic commentary or insight, it’s a largely empty rant.

tomhoward··on Is artificial consciousness achievable? Lessons from the human brain
To be clear, I don’t sit there for hours watching videos on YouTube (I have a busy career and a family so that’s not an option these days).

I do consume a lot of YouTube content as audio-only when driving or exercising.

I find video particularly satisfying for this topic and these figures, because much of the most valuable insight emerges through discussion and debate.

I’ve read Kastrup’s book “Why Materialism is Baloney” and found it very satisfying - but I was already amenable to his position; I don’t imagine it would be persuasive to an entrenched skeptic.

tomhoward··on Is artificial consciousness achievable? Lessons from the human brain
Hi there, my intention was to offer some names of people who have intelligent things to say about the topic.

I mentioned YouTube videos because there’s a large volume of their content there, with many of the videos featuring in-depth conversations and debates, which I’ve found can be a particularly good format for discussion of a topic of such gravity and complexity.

But between these three figures there are also many books, academic papers, blog posts, and written media interviews.

I’ve long found that this is a topic in which some people are going to be standoffish and resistant and that’s fine.

My hope is only to help people who are looking to learn about the topic to know who I’ve found worthwhile to learn from.

All the best!

tomhoward··on Is artificial consciousness achievable? Lessons from the human brain
If I were to mention a fourth it would be him but he's a bit embarrassed about all the controversy about his ideas on consciousness and doesn't really discuss them in depth in any videos I've seen, or wade into heated discussions about the nature of reality.

Whereas the three I mentioned all embrace discussions about the nature of reality and consciousness and happily engage in lengthy discussions and debates about it.

tomhoward··on Is artificial consciousness achievable? Lessons from the human brain
It is precisely because their advocacy for metaphysical idealism is unusual for people with their academic qualifications that they are worth mentioning, and why its worthwhile to listen to them explain their positions at length.

Appeal to authority is where you present a person's status or credentials as primary evidence that their argument is correct. I've done no such thing here.

tomhoward··on Is artificial consciousness achievable? Lessons from the human brain
Laws exist that ban practices that are - according to those who set and enforce the laws - excessively cruel to pigs. That’s all this discussion is about.

That pigs are still treated with cruelty is a terrible thing, and I’d happily see more done to protect all animals against cruelty. But it’s a separate argument to what’s relevant here.

tomhoward··on Is artificial consciousness achievable? Lessons from the human brain
Sure but this is nitpicking, as is your GP comment, and neither refute the point that the original commenter was making: modern/advanced societies have laws to protect conscious beings from exploitation and cruelty.

(As I was writing the comment I thought “ugh will someone chime in and point out that not all countries have strong animal protection laws? Do I really need to preempt that in my comment?”)

tomhoward··on Is artificial consciousness achievable? Lessons from the human brain
It has animal rights, which are broadly commensurate with the level of consciousness and agency it’s deemed to have.

Mammals and other animals have legal protections not afforded to fish and insects.

tomhoward··on Is artificial consciousness achievable? Lessons from the human brain
I’m writing this comment so that people who want to know more about alternative theories of consciousness (to materialism/physicalism [1]) can know where to go to find well-argued positions on the topic.

(To be clear, I’m not here to argue about the topic or try to persuade anyone of any position – that’s a waste of everyone’s time).

I recommend seeking out discussions involving:

- Federico Faggin: inventor of silicon-gate technology and developer of the earliest microprocessors;

- Bernardo Kastrup: Ph.D. in computer engineering (reconfigurable computing, artificial intelligence), former CERN engineer at the LHC;

- Donald D. Hoffman: Ph.D. in computational psychology, professor in Cognitive Sciences at UC Irvine.

On YouTube you can find plenty of discussions involving these figures, some with each other, and plenty more with others.

I’d suggest it’s particularly important to explore these discussions as dispassionately as possible if you regard materialism as the only theory of mind that has any scientific credibility or validity.

As Christopher Hitchens reminds us in his legendary oration on John Stuart Mill and free speech [2], it’s only by thoroughly understanding the opposing view that we can thoroughly understand our own position on any topic.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Materialism

[2] https://youtu.be/zDap-K6GmL0?t=120

tomhoward··on Lila: A Lil Interpreter in Posix Awk
It may be of interest that the BBC’s style guide stipulates that for acronyms pronounced as a word (e.g., NASA - a bona fide acronym [1]) rather than spelled (e.g., BBC - an initialism, rather than an acronym), it should be printed in title case rather than all-caps.

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acronym

tomhoward··on Leaving Substack
I think you may be underestimating how bad bot spam on web forms is these days.

It’s nothing to do with how well frequented your site is; any site that can be found by a web spider is going to get bot spam.

Of course you’re completely free to try it, and indeed it’s pointless to spend any more time debating it here. You really should just try it if you want to.

I guess what I’m saying is the reason most people find it best just to use a 3rd party platform is not because nobody can write “100 lines of code” to do it themselves, but because if they do that they experience the spam problem and just decide it’s not worth it. That was my experience.

That said, it may be easier to combat spam now with a classifier using an LLM or BERT.

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