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vmception

13,016 karma · joined April 16, 2020

Macroeconomics, Fintech, Commodities, Digital Assets

Running VMs inside of VMs. VM Inception

vmception00 [at] gmail.com

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vmception··on Luna Cryptocurrency Collapse: How UST Broke
> I also haven't paid much attention to other stablecoins, but I imagine the systems are similar, based on faith in the system, and only good as long as there's not a run on the system and more than some percentage try to get their money out.

No, that's not true. There are categories of stablecoins. There are some in the category of Luna/Terra, there are some stable in name alone, there are many that work perfectly and some of those would be able to do 100% redemptions of the entire float automatically or in a crisis of confidence.

TerraUSD was a joke. People warned of the death spiral the whole time. Its merely amusing it got that big.

vmception··on Luna Cryptocurrency Collapse: How UST Broke
if your protocol is vulnerable to a death spiral initiated by any flash loan by anyone at any time, and people told you over and over again, its not a black swan
vmception··on Luna Cryptocurrency Collapse: How UST Broke
Agreed! I would emphasize (and empathize) that there are muuuuuuch higher yields in the crypto space, so, many of these people felt like they were being responsible in a happy medium.

(The other yields are not fixed yields and very temporary, but it is easy to come out ahead. Not for passive investment chasers)

Regardless it was still up to them to be more discerning. Amazing it got that big.

vmception··on Luna Cryptocurrency Collapse: How UST Broke
99%

I think the difference is what to do about that

Users should be more discerning, that’s my vote

vmception··on Origin of life theory involving RNA–protein hybrid gets new support
Cell theory origin stories don’t rely on an existing being willing something into existence, or steering improbable events

The domain of the supernatural simply covers less and less things as our collective understanding expands

vmception··on Luna Cryptocurrency Collapse: How UST Broke
Nice, did it pay out?

I think these unceremonious undramatic payouts should be news

vmception··on Luna Cryptocurrency Collapse: How UST Broke
And Magic Internet Money (MIM) is overcollateralized with interest bearing crypto assets, and is also natively multichain via Multichain protocol

(The naming is supposed to cause consternation from people that dont matter, but since we’re all in one place now, the system design can now be evaluated independently)

Its basically what DAI would have been if DAI launched in 2021 and had choices, compared to 2017

vmception··on Luna Cryptocurrency Collapse: How UST Broke
Then add insurance.

Imagine the people in the 1920s that were like “you know what would be funny… what if we got the government to add confidence to our private business with public money and then we get all the customers and skim a little bit from them at every turn, I know I know its dumb but that would be funny right”

vmception··on Luna Cryptocurrency Collapse: How UST Broke
I see that too, I think our takeaways are very different
vmception··on Luna Cryptocurrency Collapse: How UST Broke
There will always be things people can interact with

instruction goes in, stablecoin comes out

input output

smart contracts are vending machines placed on the side of an ephemeral gas station

what regulation would you like to see and how would it apply or prevent.. anything with that reality?

I think instead of punitive taxes the regulators could try to make an approved framework seem more attractive, which just creates another additional option for the user

vmception··on Luna Cryptocurrency Collapse: How UST Broke
I think its the time for education.

Where are the news articles about the stablecoins functioning perfectly? There are a quite a few stablecoins functioning perfectly.

You pressed play on your “oh a crypto thing” script about anything crypto related and tradeable. You’re in comfortable and like company, but the issue with it is that it dilutes the conversation way from the one specific organization that launched Terra and Luna. This is the exact forum that should be talking about system designs, instead has all these odd anti-speculation rants. Half of this forum is paid in lottery tickets, its out of character.

vmception··on Twitter CEO fires two top executives, freezes hiring
accurate that they are graduated and that it approaches the top tax rates.

you can have many dollars at the top tax rate. wouldn’t recommend.

vmception··on Escaped Slave Showing His Scarred Back (1863)
People are, the usual suspects from the same states that practiced this brutality are trying to suppress that. Just like the information was suppressed in the 1800s.

As the article states, these images were needed as proof, to help otherwise apathetic people be abolitionists. Many analogies to the current day.

Just American things.

vmception··on Meatpackers drafted Trump order on meat plants during Covid-19
This is the instruction manual
vmception··on Germany: Crypto held for more than a year will not get taxed
Are there state level and municipal level income taxes as well?
vmception··on Twitter Deal Temporarily on Hold
The implied volatility of those twitter option remained at 99%

66% across expirations

People were betting

vmception··on Expats are moving to Portugal
I’ve thought a lot about that, and most “oppressive governments” only show their face if you are poor. Same for governments known as non-oppressive to be honest.

I was thinking about Monaco, small town, but the actions are a high surveillance state with rigid rules, a monarchy. There simply are no poor people, but if there were, it would be seem as an oppressive autocrat (they have a congress/parlaiment, just like other autocrats do these days). But there aren't poor people, and its more like a perpetual gala.

vmception··on Expats are moving to Portugal
I think there are at least 400,000 Californians (1%) that are wealthy enough and flexible enough to be in that global 0.03% cohort you mentioned
vmception··on Expats are moving to Portugal
So, which part of what you wrote was the opposite of what I wrote?

California has a lot of people that fit the bill that you just described. This is an LATimes article about Californians in Portugal.

Everywhere I went over the last 2 years had California remote workers doing the same thing in that location. California has a lot of decently capitalized remote workers who dont require to be subjects of California’s or America’s problems.

vmception··on Expats are moving to Portugal
California has 40 million people

Any place where just a tiny fraction, less than 1%, want to check out will get a wild market distortion.

Whether it was all those small and medium sized towns getting remote workers during the Alpha and hardcore Delta days

Or places in Portugal

The story will be the same

vmception··on Expats are moving to Portugal
In the words of Smoky the Bear, “Remember, only you, can gentrify the neighborhood.”

Interesting that the Golden Visa is not doing applications in the big cities anymore.

Remember that there is an employment route that doesn't involve purchasing property in Portugal. I think its having 8 portuguese employees

vmception··on The Cryptocurrency Crash Is Replaying 2008 as Absurdly as Possible
Its actually more like 2008, since its traders getting liquidated in complex products. Except obvious ones, instead of obfuscated provenance.

The monkey pictures are … actually doing fine, maybe just “okay”, have you looked? Anybody trading ApeCoin though? It hit airdrop price, was tempting

vmception··on The Cryptocurrency Crash Is Replaying 2008 as Absurdly as Possible
Same here, to me its just another crypto decline.

I build in this space all the time, declines are great for builders, and we mostly earn crypto and can immediately cash it out if desired. We don't need a bullish or bearish hypothesis. Transaction fees get cheaper. The economy is big enough to extract value regardless and we’re always accumulating professional experience (niche coveted coding skills) and network.

In these crashes there is always an illiquid whale. In this crash that illiquid whale is Do Kwon liquidating the bitcoin he just bought to prop up Terra/Luna, and maybe Microstrategy.

They’ll stop selling eventually.

Some funds aren’t going to get new limited partners to pump their favorite assets.

I would love to see how crypto performs in a market where sentiment isnt supported by the Federal Reserve, we havent seen that yet, even though crypto was never a direct beneficiary I think the limited partners in the last round of hedge/vc funds were fairly direct beneficiaries.

vmception··on I stopped to watch kids playing at recess – security was called
“I’m calling security, Allied Universal!”

I would have laughed just to see how high the settlement gets. Dollars would have been counting upwards in my head, analysis of how to survive the situation would have been done so that I would ensure enjoying the settlement, I would have scanned for bystandards stuck in bystander syndrome “you in particular, I’ll split the settlement with you if you record this”

New drone assimilated

The woman’s musings would have been muffled in my head, replaced by the narrator in Disco Elysium

“Stay on the public sidewalk as you are, hands clearly viewable, no sudden movements, now the public will have to pay you, or maybe the private sector, stay focused but patient”

vmception··on Twitter CEO fires two top executives, freezes hiring
yeah, people are still reconnecting with vine creators, on TikTok. You can see in the comments, a video came up on the user's feed and they were compelled enough to be like "are you so and so from vine!?" Vine was killed half a decade ago.
vmception··on Coinbase Stock Is Crashing
Nah I just think there is a dip to buy if the bearish sentiment is off

I’m determining if it’s off or not

vmception··on Tether starting to lose its peg too, after Terra did
It was actually my understanding of the situation, I feel I gave a balanced view. Not everything bad, not everything good. Like most things: somewhere in the middle and everyone is too emotional to look. It was new information to me that NYAG simply didn't investigate prior years at all, that's not the impression I got when I was reading that case. I think its an interesting way of reading it, like I said, a perspective.

Tether also grows in the same trajectory as USDC. or said another way, USDC grows in the same trajectory as Tether. That means if we were willing to assume it is actually functioning as detailed, then the same global sentiment perpetuates stablecoin growth.

What part of anything I wrote gave you the impression I have any loyalty to Tether. I was pretty explicit about the opposite of that.

> Let there be a run, I don't like to use Tether. I don't like algorithmic stablecoins more. There are options now, those options are holding up.

You're grasping just because I'm not auto-admonishing them. That's not necessary. It mostly works because its mostly dollars, the western-retail trader fud is not matched by western institutional sentiment[0], and is definitely not matched by eastern retail or eastern institutional sentiment. There is no surprise untethering, it would come from redemptions causing a liquidity issue after the dollars are all redeemed, or a crisis of confidence when redemptions are actually cut.

[0] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-12/money-mar...

If Tether's $25bn of commercial paper needs to be sold during a redemption run, after its $50billion of tethers were redeemed for dollars, then at that point there would likely be a liquidity issue spreading further to the all the Defi apps as Tether confidence shrinks, and some contagion to the "money markets". But the money markets should be able to absorb this size, commercial paper is a huuuuuuuge market.

The boogeyman stuff just is ... overblown. There is an objective reality, its not that bad, and doesn't mean you have to use it either way.

vmception··on Twitter CEO fires two top executives, freezes hiring
Lack of empathy between wage workers, pitted against other wage workers, perpetuates this.

These are people that get taxed at 55% (top california income + top federal income + additional taxes). Not the ones with multiple orders of magnitude more money that get taxed at 4%.

Their boat is so similar that its embarrassing for you to fall for the division.

vmception··on Show HN: I built a service to help companies reduce AWS spend by 50%
Cloud formation dissipation
vmception··on Coinbase Stock Is Crashing
So they’re finally moving money off of exchanges?

And shareholders are like “oh noes even less revenue… perhaps”

I just don’t get the impression it’s that rational, since the low bar Coinbase offers at all is a much higher bar or on par with all other crypto asset exchanges. I think shareholders are just thinking it meant bankruptcy incoming.

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