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warbaker

312 karma · joined December 9, 2010

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warbaker··on Biden signs TikTok bill into law, starting clock for ByteDance to divest
Forcing the sale of TikTok _is_ reciprocity. Facebook, Google, etc. are already banned in China. This is the CCP's policies backfiring.
warbaker··on Chinchilla Scaling: A replication attempt
Calling this a "replication attempt" implied to me that they tried to replicate the Chinchilla Scaling paper and found that it did not replicate, which would be a very big deal!

Instead, they just redid the analysis based on a figure in the paper and found that the old model with slightly different parameters gave a better fit to the data. This is a valuable contribution, but a bit over-stated by the paper title, and the confrontational, "gotcha" tone of the paper is unwarranted.

A better framing would have been something like "Chinchilla Scaling: Reanalyzed".

warbaker··on I Fucking Hate Jira (2022)
What was the tool?
warbaker··on Henry Kissinger Has Died
Can't say I'm surprised that this is my most downvoted post! HN, classy as ever.
warbaker··on Henry Kissinger Has Died
Kissinger gets a lot of flak for the bombings in Cambodia and Vietnam, but... I mean, it was awful when the Khmer Rouge took over Cambodia, and it was also awful when the Viet Cong took over Vietnam.

The Khmer Rouge murdered 25% of the country! 2 million people!! https://sfi.usc.edu/collections/cambodian-genocide

The Viet Cong were also horrible (excepting, of course, their intervention in Cambodia against the Khmer Rouge!) and devastated Vietnam, and the CPV rules it with an iron fist to this day.

Communism really is and was extremely, horribly bad.

In South Korea, the seemingly insane plan of the US (install a pro-Western dictator as a bulwark against Communism, and eventually transition to a liberal democracy) eventually worked. The Korean War pre-dates Kissinger's rise to power, but his overall principle of oppose-Communism-no-matter-what seems kind of reasonable, even in hindsight.

Anti-communist dictatorships and militias were often terrible, too, but it is really hard to be worse than Communists.

warbaker··on 'Not of faculty quality': How Penn mistreated Katalin Karikó
The real problem here is that funding for sciences is way too low.

Grant agencies cannot always get it right. The more funding they have, the more they can give to researchers that they aren't 100% sure about.

warbaker··on We have decided to pause driverless operations across all of our fleets
Reminder: the impetus for this is a person was thrown underneath the AV by a human-driven hit and run.

The AV did not handle it well -- it should have stopped immediately, rather than pull over.

But it's really important not to lose sight of the fact that this situation would have been completely avoided if both cars had been AVs.

warbaker··on Ending an Ugly Chapter in Chip Design
You don't get to cut parts of the method and then claim to have compared against it! Sorry.
warbaker··on Ending an Ugly Chapter in Chip Design
Ultimately, what they needed to do was train to convergence, and they didn't do that.

They should have made it extremely clear in their original manuscript their CT results are against a non-pretrained version that was not always trained to convergence, and so the CT results presented are a just a lower bound on performance.

They got confirmation from a Google engineer on only one block, which they trained for 1 million steps. For the other blocks, they didn't train anywhere close to that many steps, and their tensorboards don't show convergence on total cost.

ML is difficult! It's not enough to confirm that your implementation and installation are correct - you also need to train to convergence. You are free to complain that this is onerous or expensive. It's a common problem in academia vs industry in other areas of ML -- ML takes a lot of compute, and academic budgets are extremely tight. That said, CT is still orders of magnitude smaller / cheaper than most modern ML models (not surprising! CT is pretty old at this point by ML standards (3 years is a long time in this field)).

Kahng's FAQ admits that pre-training led to a better final proxy cost in the Nature paper, and that it significantly reduced compute time, and that this is the method that the Nature authors recommend and used in their Table 1 evals.

This whole situation is such a shame. Prof Kahng wrote a really great article on CT a few years back, and it gave me hope that the whole field was going to embrace ML and really take chip design to the next level: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01515-9

Most of the field in fact has, but Kahng himself seems to be backsliding here.

Unfortunately, I suspect that Kahng's been listening to some pretty toxic people (the same day his paper was posted to arxiv, it appeared in an SB author's court filing). It seems like his group ran into some difficulties jumping into machine learning, and rather than take that as an opportunity to grow and learn, they took that as an opportunity to attack.

While I'm glad that others in the field have built on the work successfully (see Appendix of https://www.annagoldie.com/home/statement ), it would be really tragic for Kahng himself to get left behind here, and so so unnecessary!

warbaker··on Ending an Ugly Chapter in Chip Design
Statement from the Nature authors on this: https://www.annagoldie.com/home/statement
warbaker··on Ending an Ugly Chapter in Chip Design
EDIT (parity error): "didn't train" -> "trained"
warbaker··on Ending an Ugly Chapter in Chip Design
It doesn't look like they didn't train CT to convergence, so idk why anyone would care about those results.

What is even the point of benchmarking against a learning based method of you don't let it finish learning? Quality of output matters way more than compute cost.

warbaker··on Google's claims of super-human AI chip layout back under the microscope
You're completely right that if it has merit, Google should apply it to their silicon design.

As it turns out, they do! This method has been used in TPU for multiple generations, including the most recent.

warbaker··on Google's claims of super-human AI chip layout back under the microscope
Statement from the authors of the super-human AI chip method: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jWUw6rUDcc7fuHu_iGeVDUkBxNJ...

The concerns presented in the Register are way overblown.

warbaker··on Credit Suisse finds ‘material weakness’ in reporting, scraps exec bonuses
Usually bondholders are also wiped out during a bailout. Bailouts are generally for customers / counterparties, not investors.

Sometimes in a bankruptcy, bondholders take a "haircut" and agree to get less money back because the company simply can't pay them what they're owed.

warbaker··on The 4-day week is flawed – workers still want it
We work hard because we make stuff people want. We can make more, better stuff by working hard. I do think 50-60 hour weeks are often counterproductive, but the money we make ultimately comes from providing value to someone. It isn't turtles all the way down.

If your business is operating mainly on loans instead of revenue, it's because the lenders believe that you will provide value to someone in the future, and that you'll be able to capture some of that value and give it to the lenders. The lenders can be wrong, but it's still about giving people things they want.

There are some bad businesses, for sure, which are about tricking people into giving you money without giving them something in return. And a lot of business activity is about jostling for a good negotiation position (e.g. consolidation), so that you can capture more of the value you provide. But because people control their spending, you ultimately have to make something people want (or make them want what you have) if you want to make money.

Overall, you almost make it sound like the global trade of calories/textiles/etc is a bad thing, but it is an extremely good thing! It is one of the best things!!!

warbaker··on Decommissioned Atlas F missile silo complex for sale
Gotta watch out for deep crows [1], of course.

[1] https://www.penny-arcade.com/comic/2007/10/10/

warbaker··on Michael Lewis and the parable of the lucky man taking the extra cookie (2017)
I see the "graph" on page 104, which shows (if anything) a slightly negative effect for men ("high power" men took slightly fewer cookies on average). I didn't see a detailed methodology anywhere.
warbaker··on Michael Lewis and the parable of the lucky man taking the extra cookie (2017)
The cookie study hasn't been published anywhere. Descriptions of the methodology vary (sometimes it's 4 cookies, sometimes it's 5 cookies). Super suss, and I wouldn't be surprised if the results don't reproduce. https://thenewstatistics.com/itns/2019/05/22/the-cookie-mons...
warbaker··on The Joy of Condensed Matter
John Bardeen is one of the greatest physicists of all time. He is the only person to win two Nobel Prizes in physics.

Shockley may have been a talented scientist, but he did not invent the transistor, and tried to steal (not share in, but steal) the credit from the people who did.

Newton was a jerk, but he invented modern physics. Shockley was also a jerk, but that doesn't mean he invented the transistor.

warbaker··on The Joy of Condensed Matter
This article attributes the transistor to Shockley, but this is incorrect. It was really invented by John Bardeen and Walter Brattain. Shockley, their manager, tried to steal all the credit, and mostly succeeded. https://www.pbs.org/transistor/album1/addlbios/egos.html
warbaker··on I Really Blew It (2020)
To me, there can be almost a . . . cuteness to good simulation. It's a small, holdable version of something big, like a tiny stuffed giraffe.
warbaker··on I Really Blew It (2020)
I think he's trying to say that there's art in simulation, in taking complex real life phenomena, turning them into simple math, making a computer run that math, and giving a person a way to interact with it.

Some games today do this, but it's rare.

Game systems being treated as art (as opposed to the story/visuals/sound) is rarer still.

Incidentally, the reason he chose to present simple formulae in the post was that he wanted to show elegant simplicity, not dazzle with mathematical wizardry.

Regardless, you don't need to dunk on someone who is already dunking on himself, hard, harder than most of us are even capable of, just because in your opinion he isn't doing it in quite the right way.

warbaker··on Physics Without Probability (2015) [video]
You're familiar with Bell's Theorem, yes? QM puts significant constraints on any physical theory that might underlie it.
warbaker··on Measuring "efficiency" in document prepration: Microsoft Word vs. LaTex
On the other hand, Word never has compiler errors.
warbaker··on Why There Aren't More Googles (2008)
And YouTube, and of course DoubleClick.
warbaker··on The Fable of the Dragon-Tyrant (2005)
You still need to explain why some whales live hundreds of years, and some trees live thousands.

If you believe that telomere shortening is the issue, we should be investigating therapies to encourage telomere lengthening.

We have access to powerful technologies (e.g. CRISPR), and we can develop technologies that are more powerful still.

warbaker··on The Fable of the Dragon-Tyrant (2005)
I think they would have, yes. Both effects are occurring at the same time - younger people are more liberal, but also older people are getting more liberal over their lifespans.

And, in any case, if the price of longevity is slower social change, I'll take it!

warbaker··on The Fable of the Dragon-Tyrant (2005)
I think you can courageously follow your heart even if you know you won't die for thousands of years.

Perhaps a world in which a 5000-year lifespan is common will be a world in which people are more socially courageous, more daring, as they know they'll have plenty of time to recover from a mistake.

warbaker··on The Fable of the Dragon-Tyrant (2005)
We are failing to sufficiently fund longevity research, and the basic science and engineering needed to enable it.

We are spending a ton of money on healthcare (analogous to the trains), and almost nothing on the root cause of most of these health problems.

The reason the fable is effective is that it frames aging as an adversary, which makes it much easier to understand the necessity of spending resources to defeat it.

Bostrom would say that your concern that aging and cancer are intertwined is akin to a scientist seeing that the scale is impenetrable to all known materials, and then giving up.

Somehow, whales live hundreds of years, and trees live thousands. What's different about their biology that accounts for this? Why aren't their bodies wracked with cancer?

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