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zigzigzag

1,415 karma · joined August 11, 2016

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zigzigzag··on Hospitals across England hit by large-scale cyber-attack
Spanish CERT has announced it's a worm that's exploiting the EternalBlue NSA exploit (in SMB/Windows file sharing).
zigzigzag··on Hospitals across England hit by large-scale cyber-attack
Classic. GCHQ and NSA are joined at the hip. If telefonica are right and it's spreading through the NSA hacks revealed by the Shadow Brokers then GCHQ/5-eyes has some responsibility for what's been happening.
zigzigzag··on The great British Brexit robbery
What I'm trying to say is that things on the Continent have been fucking bleak, and what happened in Britain, as a comparison, is kids' play

Putting aside your ridiculous belief that Brits did not suffer in WW2, what I don't get about your position is that the EU is run by powerful, entirely unaccountable leaders who very frequently and publicly take a dump on the entire concept of democracy and voting. The EU's law making is done in secret, which is similar only to North Korea in opacity.

https://euobserver.com/institutional/136630

And the EU is busy telling eastern European countries they're going to be punished financially and legally for not adopting "european values" (as these countries are without a doubt in Europe geographically, what that means of course is "german values").

Of all the people who should be attuned to the dangers of powerful leaders who dislike referendums, citizens of ex-Soviet countries should be the MOST aware. Yet you are running headlong into another giant undemocratic bloc.

zigzigzag··on The great British Brexit robbery
it is also true to say that a lot of people voted leave on the promise of £350 million a week extra for the NHS

No it's not. Can you show that with any sort of data at all? Or do you define "a lot" as simply "more than a few"?

The Remain obsession with a single bus is really sad. There's no evidence that this was a major factor in the vote. Immigration and sovereignty were the top two issues as shown by repeated polls, vox pops, the views of campaigners themselves, etc.

It's an especially weak point to bring up because it appears to have been wrong in the wrong direction: nobody campaigning for the EU mentioned an £80 billion exit fee, and if that had been known about or incorporated, the true cost of membership would have been much higher, perhaps more like £500 million a week.

Additionally there were lots of lies told by the Remain campaign that were far more impactful and serious. For example, Cameron saying he'd stay on to negotiate with the EU in the case of an out vote (despite having failed to achieve anything before), which turned out to be a colossal lie. And a very important one because it made Osborne's threat of a "punishment budget" credible. Yet he resigned immediately, clearly he didn't decide that on the spot, he knew he wouldn't continue if he lost the vote.

zigzigzag··on The great British Brexit robbery
Maybe it's because the Brits (as in the civil population) never really got to experience the horrors of war for the last 200 years, at least.

Are you serious? What do you think the Blitz was?

zigzigzag··on The great British Brexit robbery
Those sums aren't some arbitrarily thought up "exit fees"

They are, actually:

1) The number being cited keeps changing (upwards)

2) When asked how they calculated those figures, and what the legal basis was, the Commission said it wasn't going to tell you.

There is a useful analysis of what's going on here:

https://www.cer.org.uk/sites/default/files/pb_barker_brexit_...

zigzigzag··on The great British Brexit robbery
David Cameron led the campaign to remain, as did the government. Coulson, the press officer whom Cameron picked, and who you're trying to finger as part of some "overt" and "out in the open" conspiracy, also campaigned for Remain and frequently attacked people campaigning to Leave:

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/david-camerons-ex-staff...

How does this conspiracy theory even work? That Cameron's staff were secretly trying to lose whilst they were out campaigning to win? Because of an ex-employer?

That's not just illogical, it's completely incoherent. Think about what you're trying to argue there for a moment.

zigzigzag··on The great British Brexit robbery
Facebook makes money through simple commercial advertising - nothing sinister there.

Cambridge Analytica might just make money by convincing fools that they have some secret insight or power, when they actually don't. Psychics and mediums have in the past made a ton of money, as did quack doctors. Coca-Cola started out as a quack cure-all and it still makes a ton of money today.

The basic narrative you're pursuing here is one that has cropped up a lot in the past 18 months: voters are, by and large, easily manipulated putty who don't have real reasons or analysis behind their decisions. Instead they simply do whatever shadowy Russian conspirators make them do through subtle manipulation of Facebook, the press, or whatever.

Simple, obvious explanations for what's happening in politics are staring us all straight in the face. Occam's Razor guys ... there is no need to go full chemtrails and pin responsibility on some invisible evidence-free conspiracy of random firms, people and countries. Just assume voters are on average, of average intelligence, and thus probably have reasonably straightforward reasons for doing what they do.

zigzigzag··on The great British Brexit robbery
I note that your profile says you are a strategist & speaker on "digital, UX and branding".

I would hope that a branding specialist would have no trouble understanding the Brexit result. It doesn't require deep analysis. Remain mounted a campaign that was defeatist and based on fear: "ok, our attempt to negotiate resulted in nothing at all, but we must still remain and obey Brussels because if we don't our friends and allies will destroy our economy."

As a logical consequence, they were effectively arguing that there was no future for British democracy, because the trend over time has always been for the EU to take more powers out of the hands of democratic local government and take it for itself.

That's a terrible brand. Leave campaigned on a better future with "take back control" as their byline.

You don't need conspiracy theories about corporations with mind-control machines to explain what happened next.

zigzigzag··on Macron condemns 'massive' hacking attack
You mean all twice, both times leaks from or against politicians that are deeply unpopular?

Of the candidates running in the French first round, all of them were anti-EU except Macron. Given the "anything anti-EU == Russian" idiocy, perhaps you can explain why this is seen as some kind of rare thing that needs frantic dot-joining?

zigzigzag··on Facebook's female engineers claim gender bias
Men get passed over for promotions they deserve all the time too. You're just assuming it's because of your gender but haven't provided any evidence for it.
zigzigzag··on Facebook's female engineers claim gender bias
It's also the case that the hiring pipelines can be biased in other ways. For instance if a woman fails a phone screen she may be given a second phone screen anyway, or even on-sites anyway, "just in case", whereas the man would have been canned at the first stage. Was definitely told this was happening by recruiters in the past.
zigzigzag··on Facebook's female engineers claim gender bias
The issue is not necessarily hiring. There was a story on HN a while back saying how Facebook recruiters had stopped bothering to target women specifically because even though they were heavily incentivised to do so, the FB hiring committees weren't on board with the whole positive discrimination thing so it wasn't working.

However, the big tech firms do seem to have a problem with firing. I've heard this several times now from other people and saw it myself when I worked at Google. Hiring is never 100% accurate and so even if hiring itself is unbiased (questionable at best), without unbiased firing the quality of that segment of the worker pool goes downwards over time. Even though the engineers often truly believe in a meritocracy, HR in particular is a strongly female dominated profession and unfortunately I do suspect a "sisters gotta stick together" mentality because I saw within the span of a single year at Google a man get canned for merely not being particularly productive, whilst a woman who openly and repeatedly lied in meetings (and lied very badly at that), and who caused her team huge heartache due to her terrible quality work, was not only not fired but in the end promoted into management. It was widely known that women who weren't very good or caused trouble were almost impossible to get rid of and were typically transferred around between teams rather than shown the door.

zigzigzag··on Who Is Publishing NSA and CIA Secrets, and Why?
What kind of an answer is that? Do you have evidence that they have leaks they're sitting on? If so, why would the leaker not just send their materials elsewhere? The point of Wikileaks is to publish, after all. You're arguing that they have lots of material they refuse to publish, and the people who provided that material oddly don't use other channels, yet you have no evidence.
zigzigzag··on Who Is Publishing NSA and CIA Secrets, and Why?
The logic for that appears to be circular. Schnier himself says he simply "doesn't think" Iran or North Korea are capable. Based on what, exactly? The skills to find and develop exploits are not particularly rare. This isn't atomic physics during WW2. Primarily what you need is time and money, but not a lot of time and not a lot of money. Both Iran and North Korea have proven capable of building a nuclear programme despite the efforts of the entire world to stop them, so what makes Schnier think they can't do the same for cyberwarfare which is dramatically easier to engage in?

Well ... nothing. He just knows it's the Russians.

zigzigzag··on Who Is Publishing NSA and CIA Secrets, and Why?
This comes up every time Wikileaks is mentioned, and it is ridiculous every time.

Assange has stated, very clearly, that Russia is not the source and that if they had leaks related to Russia they'd publish them. But they don't. Probably because Wikileaks isn't necessary for Russian leakers: it arose because western newspapers were so reluctant to publish leaked material from western governments. But those same newspapers are desperate to publish anything that makes Russia look bad. So why go via Wikileaks, when you could go directly to the NY Times or the Guardian.

The whole "Wikileaks = Russia" line just comes off as delusional. There's no evidence, it has been explicitly denied, and the supporting arguments are very weak.

zigzigzag··on WikiTribune – Evidence-based journalism
Hmmmm. That website is ... unconvincing. At best.

The heart of De Correspondent is our founding document from 2013 – a manifesto of sorts – and these core principles have informed how we’ve built De Correspondent ... 1. De Correspondent provides an antidote to the daily news grind. 2. De Correspondent challenges oversimplification and stereotyping.

Here are the top four headlines from the "selected stories from our archives" section on the front page:

"This is how we can fight Donald Trump’s attack on democracy"

"If Shell knew climate change was dire 25 years ago, why still business as usual today?"

"We’re heading into dark times. This is how to be your own light in the Age of Trump"

"How billions vanish into the black hole that is the security industry"

These headlines read exactly like a typical front page of the Guardian. How is this "challenging oversimplification" or being "an antidote to the daily news grind"? I can find content like that anywhere on the internet for free, its value is literally zero.

The Manifesto itself does not seem very consistent. It says things like:

Correspondents are fair and independent, yet also explicitly subjective

and

De Correspondent is ambitious in its ideals, yet modest in its claims

after making a series of decidedly not modest claims. It also has this amusing statement:

Although De Correspondent is a commercial, for-profit enterprise, we do not strive to maximize profits for shareholders. A profit ceiling has been stipulated in our statutes: Any profit distribution may not be greater than 5% of revenues.

But 20 seconds googling throws up a claim that the average profit margin in the newspaper industry is around 3.2%, which sounds about right. Average profit margins across all industries are 10% but the news industry is famously in decline and laying off employees, so 10% would be far too high. Aiming for 5% profit margins as if it's some great sacrifice indicates that either they believe their readers don't know much about business, or they themselves don't know. Neither possibility makes me want to subscribe.

zigzigzag··on WikiTribune – Evidence-based journalism
Does it? In another HN thread there was a link posted to this article from 2004:

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/07/25/opinion/the-public-editor-...

Apparently the actual staff of the NY Times are under no illusions about the even-handedness of their own work. And that was written over a decade ago. I'm not sure how you'd objectively define high standards or trustworthiness except in a circular manner.

zigzigzag··on The Media Bubble Is Worse Than You Think
A decent article with hard data, albeit a lot of words extrapolated out of one unsurprising fact: with the decline of local newspapers, journalists now mostly live in the cities.

Jonathan Haight has a similar dataset where he shows the remarkably fast and steep political homogenization of academia, with Democrat domination of universities massively increasing over the past ten years.

Lots of people have an intuitive understanding that certain professions like journalism, economics, social science professors are dominated by particular worldviews to the exclusion of all else. But only rarely is this shown with raw data.

zigzigzag··on The End of IKVM.NET
It's not just a handful of optimisations. The entire JVM is performance focused in a way the CLR just isn't. Microsoft historically put their resources into the C# language and the IDE. Sun/Oracle put their efforts into the runtime.

For instance, the CLR doesn't do any profile guided or speculative optimisations at all. That's a 20% win for most Java apps and even more still for languages with higher levels of abstraction like Scala. So right there from the start .NET is 20% behind. The CLR doesn't have an interpreter, so, it spends a lot of time JIT compiling code that isn't particularly important. That takes CPU time away from your app, not sure how much of an effect that is but I can imagine it's at least another 10% down. C# asks devs to control de-virtualisation by hand to try and compensate, but the JVM can do a better job automatically. CLR is only now starting to look at tiered compilation and even then only a very basic form compared to Java which has had it since Java 8.

But not only is the base infrastructure and approach far more advanced, the JVM's JIT compilers are way ahead of even the new RyuJIT. Not just fancy optimisations like devirt and escape analysis/scalar replacement, but even basic things like profile-guided basic block ordering. JVM can do auto-vectorisation of loops, lock optimisations, it can even replace speculatively profile and replace synchronised blocks with hardware (TSX) transactional memory. The CLR is multiple generations behind where HotSpot is. And the JVM team is extending its lead even further with projects like Graal.

zigzigzag··on The End of IKVM.NET
.NET is primarily used by two cultures that don't place a big emphasis on open source development: Windows and giant in-house enterprise IT projects, often at banks. Banks have historically struggled with open source: it took a long time for them to start using it, and much longer still to start contributing.

Java's focus on cross-platform support from the start probably seemed like a waste of resources back in the 1990s when Windows was so dominant, but it had the advantage of making it more popular amongst UNIX users and the existing open source culture. Java going open source long before .NET also contributed to this. The end result is that you get organisations like Red Hat, Apache, IBM that create vast quantities of high quality open source Java code, and a culture that is steeped in open source development. Whereas in .NET it's rare to use components not built by Microsoft and when they do exist they are typically proprietary, same as in the 1990s.

zigzigzag··on The Guardian Pulls Out of Facebook’s Instant Articles and Apple News
I think they're similar in goal but quite different in implementation. AMP gives publishers a lot more control and apparently that shows up in ad revenue figures.
zigzigzag··on For First Time Since 1800s, Britain Goes a Day Without Burning Coal for Power
This isn't whilst a project is being built. It's after it's been built, in perpetuity, to constantly remind people that the thing in question was "paid for by the EU". The logos of the actual entities that paid for it, the countries, are not shown of course.
zigzigzag··on UK launches program to explore removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere
London's transport system is at capacity, not just roads but rail and air transport are all operating at 100% and can barely grow. So restricting transport further is politically difficult, for example, it is typically hard to actually get a seat on commuter trains due to overcrowding and my experience is that people frequently turn up to work late or miss trains because there is physically no space left on the transport system to get them to work.

Given that, putting even more load on public transport by restricting vehicle traffic would be politically very difficult. Crossrail will help relieve the pressure along its route (10% capacity bump on rail!) but given the growth in the cities population and the possibility that the population figures are wrong anyway (the UK has not done a census for a long time), planners are anticipating that nearly all the added capacity will be used within just a few years. Hence them starting to plan Crossrail 2 before Crossrail 1 is actually finished.

zigzigzag··on UK launches program to explore removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere
The UK is already deforested and almost all land is in use, either for cities/towns or agriculture. There is no space to put new forests there. So for the UK to meet its own targets it has to look elsewhere.
zigzigzag··on For First Time Since 1800s, Britain Goes a Day Without Burning Coal for Power
Coal plants are not designed to be constantly started and stopped. For one, constantly cooling and reheating the equipment would damage the metal.
zigzigzag··on For First Time Since 1800s, Britain Goes a Day Without Burning Coal for Power
That used to be the case, yes. Since the arrival of many-channel TV and changed viewing habits (e.g. lots more internet use) the advert-break-effect has lessened considerably.
zigzigzag··on For First Time Since 1800s, Britain Goes a Day Without Burning Coal for Power
lol, username checks out.

The EU uses propaganda so routinely people don't even notice it anymore. Like how federalists always refer to the EU as "Europe" even though Europe is a continent with several non-EU countries in it, and the EU is a political arrangement. It's a subtle word trick but it plants the feeling of permanence in people's minds.

Also, the way it charges countries huge sums of money to trade with it tariff free and then dishes out the money to projects ... but only on the condition that they erect giant signs with the EU flag and saying the EU paid for it. The EU of course, produces nothing itself, it's the countries that paid for it, but putting the actual flags of the nations that paid might lead to people feeling loyalty to actual European countries instead of the EU institutions.

And then there is the actual propaganda. Including, ironically, propaganda targeted at Russia:

http://collections.internetmemory.org/haeu/content/201603131...

http://collections.internetmemory.org/haeu/content/201603131...

zigzigzag··on How many jobs really require college?
That hasn't happened yet though. Stock brokers, on the other hand, once the quintessential white collar job, have been completely replaced by automated trading algorithms.
zigzigzag··on Pre-WWI Britain harbored many of the preconditions for fascism
I think things make a lot more sense if fascism is recognised as a far-left ideology: the notion that it's "far right" doesn't really make any sense when examined and so we should really just question if it's been misclassified - possibly deliberately.

Mussolini himself said that fascism was basically a form of socialism, and his beef with socialism was more that - at one time - it had an internationalist and interventionist outlook. That didn't last long before "Socialism in one country" came along though and at that point the distinction between fascism and socialism largely disappears.

After all, what are the characteristics of the right? I'd say a preference for free markets over state intervention, a reverence for tradition, desire for a strong military, a leaning towards democracy and localism, and a general sense that government should do less. Would a far-right society then not be something like anarcho-capitalism? Whereas under Mussolini about 75% of Italian industry was state controlled and arguably fascism is about the fusion of the state and industry into a single whole (hardly distinct from bulk nationalisation).

I'm not sure there are any examples of far right societies in the 20th century, although perhaps Victorian England and the early years of the independent USA could be described that way.

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