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Or it could indicate that Charles Arthur's analysis of the data provided by Google is flawed and so using it to speculate on productivity is a bit of a fool's errand :-)

(See my comment here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10419034 for my reasoning)

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Is this the same Charles Arthur who contributes to The Grauniad[1]? If it is the same person, then I am not surprised by the lack of cogency.

https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Grauniad

It is. I've actually disagreed with him in the past in some obscure correspondence I sent him (so minor he won't recall it!), but he's not always wrong :-)

I've responded to your comment there. Obviously, the data is open to lots of interpretations. I tried to use models that seem reasonable and reflect what we know about internet behaviour - particularly the Pareto distribution of most activities.

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