Comment by lhuang | Hacker News Reader

Comment by lhuang | Hacker News Reader

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huh? No real change over the last 10 years?

As a rule I try to shy away inflammatory criticism, but this was a very poorly researched post.

There has been TREMENDOUS change over the past 10 years! You have to remember that until Deng's reforms in the late 80s, China was a completely closed society that was just beginning to heal from decades of strife and instability (almost 100 years!), including the cultural revolution which literally turned society upside down and placed a freeze on societal progress.

Since the early 90s China has made leaps and bounds in regards to reform and progress. YES they are still MANY problems, but the changes have been very substantial. China will surpass Japan this year as the 2nd largest economy in the world. Outside of the US and Russia, it holds the third largest stockpile of nuclear arms. The accolades are many...

That said, its unfair to really compare China with South Korea/Japan, who've not only had a huge lead time, but also don't have 1.3 billion people to feed, provide jobs for, and yes control.

All of this growth and sudden change has caused problems, corruption and protectionist economic policies (not to mention the increasingly dangerous heights of nationalism the CCP is stimulating among the populace, especially the youth). To say however that Chinese society is corrupt and have been "meddling in business for thousands of years" is absurd and frankly a bit fox-news in rhetoric.

One of the things I love most about HN is that the community here is in general "smarter" than more general-interest social news communities. That said, I wish people would take a more balanced view on China. Yes there are problems and the CCP is no benevolent big brother but as the poster above me has pointed out the issues are not black and white. There are many many many nuances in uplifting a nation of 1.3 billion people into modernity. I'm not convinced that an open, free-market system is the best solution. Perhaps down the road, but not now.

Not to quibble too much, since this is a complex issue, but as it is 2010, "last 10 years" would mean since 2000, so stuff from the 80s and 90s isn't precisely on target.

Fair.

That said, my points still stands. I used the 90s for contrast purposes. The changes in China over the past 20 years are PROFOUND. Over the past 10 years they are only slightly diminished but no less amazing.

I've been traveling to China annually for pretty much the last 6-7 years and lived there for an extended period of time a few years ago. The changes have been dramatic in both urban and rural areas. In fact I found change to be even more visible in the rural areas. Literally over a year farm fields would be transformed to high-rises and cosmopolitan residential communities.

The changes in infrastructure/economic development has also fostered great changes/progress towards a more civil society, etc.

Even if we were just to compare 2000 vs 2010 the changes are great. To say that there have been no major progress in 10 years and to suggest that South Korean and Japanese development in that same period of time has been greater than China's is patently absurd. Like dum-dum circus absurd.

To be clear I am not suggesting that Japan had the same level of growth from 2000 vs 2010 rather when you compare growth at similar levels of development the growth seems less impressive. I used to think much more highly of China but after watching how much supervision a group of visiting academics had I became far less enchanted.

PS: Visiting China it's easy to overestimate the level of growth if you are anywhere near the coast, I would suggest you wonder around western china to get some idea of how far the country has to go.

Edit: Find China http://geology.com/articles/satellite-photo-earth-at-night.s... granted I think that's a compost from the mid 90's but you can still see the trend on where development takes place.

Comparing the rate of political change in China from 1988 - 1998 to the rate of change in 2000 - 2010 it's clearly slowed down. As to corruption I can only suggest you research the topic both from a historical perspective and a modern business one. Read up on how Google local competitor has benefited from close government ties and multiply that by every significant business in China. Look at the percentage of multi millionaires with close family connections to government and suggest corruption is not a major issue.

China has had just as long to grow economically as Japan and South Korea. Yet, only by ignoring the vast difference in population sizes are they in any way comparable from an economic standpoint. Suggesting that a non "free-market" system is a better approach when it's provided such poor returns is ignoring history.

The rate of change will obviously be grater from 1988-1998 than from 2000-2010 because prior to 1988 China was a completely closed society (especially prior to 1978) and just beginning to wake up from the cultural revolution, a highly chaotic period where progress LITERALLY stopped.

That said, this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Prc1952-2005gdp.gif

appears to disproves your point. Not accounting for inflation, nominal GDP grew about 8,000 bln from 1990-2000, which is paralleled in only 5 years between 2000-2005.

As for corruption, I don't think you've done much to further your argument that "China has been a historical corrupt society for thousands of years". Benefiting from close ties to the government is a natural economic condition found in every country. Hello US Lobbying industry?

And the percentage of multi-millionaires with close family connections doesn't say much either, only that China has a growing class of oligarchs, again a condition found in many many many other countries.

That said, it wouldn't be fair for me to wholly dismiss your points. Yes corruption is widespread, but I don't see how that proves your point that China as a society has been utilizing corruption to cheat their business partners for thousands of years. That is an absurd point that is not at all grounded in history nor facts.

Finally I think you mis-understood my point in regards to S. Korea/Japan. They have had LONGER to grow economically in the sense that until the mid 1970s China was essentially a collapsed country, with really NO economy. Irregardless of time, both S. Korea and Japan grew their economies out of authoritarian governments. S. Korea was for most of the latter half of the 20th century a military state and Japanese politics was dominated by a single party. Both not exactly what I would call open democratic regimes.

No idea what you mean by "a non 'free-market' system is a better approach when it's provided such poor returns...", can you define "poor returns"? China has been one of the fastest growing economies for the past 30 years. How is that poor returns? In fact, its the very authoritarian regime you lambast as being economically inefficient that has been cited as the source of China's seemingly "magical" growth.

Lastly, you absolutely CANNOT ignore China's massive population when analyzing the country's current and future states. Having to support a nation of 1.3 billion people is an epically difficult task and as I state in a prior comment, ALL problems in China derive from its population problem.

Anyways the point of all of this is not to defend China. The hyperbole and level of mis-understanding among the HN community in regards to China is absurd. This is not a good/bad issue. China's problems are nuanced, just like all things in life. It helps no one by making blanket statements that are derived from quick google searches and superficial understanding of complex issues.

I am not suggesting that you compare China to other Japan today rather how quickly they become industrialized. In 1965, Japan's nominal GDP was estimated at just over $91 billion. Fifteen years later, the nominal GDP had soared to a record $1.065 trillion by 1980. (11x growth in 15 years.) By comparison China's growth from 1989 to 2004 was ~9x (from your chart). At the time there was a lot of talk about Japan taking over the world, which did not happen for various reasons, primarily because once you get to near parity with the rest of the world further economic development requires innovation.

As to poor returns I meant that China's growth has been has increased as they approached a free market, and there is little evidence to support the advantage (in terms of growth) of a non free market. Which was a response to I'm not convinced that an open, free-market system is the best solution. Perhaps down the road, but not now.

PS: I am not saying china's growth is slow, rather young people don't have a lot to compare it to. Industrialization and effective free markets result in massive economic growth. So I don't think the Chinese government is responsible for growth so much as letting it happen.

Edit: As to corruption it's something you have to see first hand. It has many forms but look at Google for a classic example. The most blatant example of which was they used DNS to randomly point to Google's competitor; now just think about what that means. Sadly this is closer to the norm than most people acknowledge.

Japan had a bit of help from abroad after world war II, and like Germany for a long time did not have the financial burden of an army.

Good comments lhuang. I am often surprised at the negative "drive-by" comments against China. China does have a lot of problems to solve. I'm truly amazed they've made it this far and we should spend a bit of time celebrating their advances if we expect them to take our criticism. I'm sure there are people in government in China that are just in it to pull money out of the system. But in my experience, they are the minority. A China government official must make net positive progress or get replaced.

The numbers I've seen show that economic growth since China joined WTO in October 2000 surpasses any other period you may choose. In my original comment, I mention "change" (social, political, and economic) in China over the past 10 years simply because I've lived in Shanghai since summer 2000 and personally witnessed the change.

I can't speak for South Korea or Japan because I've never lived there and have only read about those places.

Although I personally lean toward "free-market" policies, I recognize that a significant portion of the U.S. economy (my country) does not operate on free-market principles. Energy, Government, some aspects of Health Care, mostly operate under controlled, non-free-market conditions.

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