Home burglary is almost dead.
"The median dollar value of items and cash stolen during completed household burglaries increased 54 percent from 1994 to 2011, the Justice Department’s Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) announced today. The median financial loss during completed burglaries in 1994 was $389 (adjusted for inflation), compared to $600 in 2011. The average dollar loss in 2011 among households that lost $1 or more was about $2,120."
From 1994 to 2011, the rate of all burglaries (attempted and completed) decreased 56 percent, from a peak of 63.4 to 27.6 victimizations per 1,000 U.S. households. The number of burglaries experienced by U.S. households declined 47 percent, from about 6.4 million burglaries in 1994 to about 3.4 million in 2011
I'm not surprised that median went up, I would expect that as a side effect of a significant drop in the rate.
http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/hb9411.pdf
Table 5 sort of shows what I was getting at, burglaries of lower income households dropped a lot more than burglaries in general. One explanation of that is that lower end break ins aren't worth it anymore.
If that is the case, the average would go up without the rest of the burglaries really changing.
(I guess that could be described as a change in the distribution of burglaries rather than a shift in the distribution; I read your reply here as pointing to a shift)
One thing we don't know is how many small-take thefts just go unreported now, as break-ins (of autos, especially) have become epidemic. My city doesn't even send a response for property crimes now. The victim just files a report on their website for insurance purposes. A friend in Berkeley had two petty burglaries in the past year-plus and didn't report for that reason.
So you've got expensive non-unique items that others want in easier to find locations, a definite win for the burglar I'd think.
Last time our place was burgled, they ignored laptops and cameras and went for the jewelry.
The general spending of all people on electronics is much higher now than in 1994.
So the rate is lower, the security is higher, the value of available goods to steal in any given home are higher.
It doesnt matter if they cant hock them at pawn shops. I have ~20 computers in my home.... many monitors etc...
So yeah the rate is down, but the value and density of targets has increased -- but it metered by also much more vigilant and camera ready people