Hacker News Reader

Could someone grade the explanation I gave my non-technical boss last week?

In the context of a regression analysis, I said, "P-values indicate the chance that the apparent effect of the variable is from random fluctuations in the data instead of the variable itself."

View on HN

I would grade this explanation poorly, because it is wrong.

It's impossible to know the odds of an apparent effect coming from random data fluctuations or a real effect. The p-value cannot tell you these odds. The p-value only tells you one half of that---the odds that random fluctuations would cause an apparent effect.

While we're at it, let's try this one too: The p-value, if correctly computed, is the probability that data collected under different conditions actually come from the same distribution. My definition sidesteps the word "effect."

My two cents is that once you start talking about "distributions" you add a layer of obfuscation that makes it a non-intuitive explanation.

Thanks. That's a good point. I wonder if there's a better term, or way of explaining it.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com