What's not captured in this writeup is SERP rank (if for equivalent terms the new site is ranking better or worse than previously), it's only showing the resulting traffic.
I wonder what affect people seeing the domain "PainScience" instead of "SaveYourself" in the results caused.
However, it's a near certainty that you're going to lose rank and traffic with a domain name move. Estimates vary but 10-20% isn't an unreasonable guesstimate even if everything goes right.
I can also confirm the deep weirdness of GWT and how it treats sites (seriously, it considered http://domain.com and https://domain.com as two entirely separate sites).