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I think the carriers in the US did a lot to create the 2-year upgrade cycle. Now that some are breaking out the phone subsidy from the monthly service charges, the incentive to upgrade is reduced.

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The flip side of that is that with the new monthly phone payment option you are now able to upgrade yearly

I would think it would be the opposite.

My old contract was something like $80 / month. Every two years they would tell me I could upgrade to a new phone for very low cost. It was foolish to not upgrade because the monthly fee stayed at $80 whether I upgraded or not.

When the option is upgrade and keep paying $80 / month or keep your old phone and the rate drops to $60 / month, the incentive to upgrade is reduced.

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