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Comment by vvanders | Hacker News Reader

Remember when BMW couldn't update their cars with auto-park after the regulators gave to go head? I'm not all that worried about Tesla.

Their competencies are in Software and the Supercharger/Battery Infra. No one is going to come close to that in 5-10 years at a minimum.

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5-10 ? When it comes to infrastructure Tesla is no way ahead by 5 years. Auto-pilot perhaps they may have deployment advantage given that they have only 2 models and (pre 2014 models of S wont get auto-pilot too). Greatly exaggerated, TSLA is a wonderful company and vision but their market cap is way way off, for what they do.

Can you point me to another auto manufacturer's free charging network?

> 595 Supercharger stations with 3,465 Superchargers

https://www.teslamotors.com/supercharger

This doesn't include destination chargers at hotels, restaurants, and other establishments.

GM will be rolling out with Bolt EV, primarily that would be any GM dealership. I really do not know about the count, but it is interesting place to start. The way forward would be to rope in utilities like NRG(which already has lot of charging stations) to provide the backbone for the system. As days go by it looks like the major car companies are in agreement with their plug standards. The other aspect is free charging is not promised by Tesla on Model 3. So cannot take into consideration for Bolt EV infrastructure.

Right. No existing infrastructure, just cobbled together dealership charging stations. No autopilot in the Bolt. No OTA software updates (in the US, at least), as it violates the franchise agreement with dealerships. No high-voltage DC charging such that a Supercharger can offer (just the designed-by-committee CHAdeMO junk).

That's why Tesla is 5 years ahead.

Tesla started putting out super chargers in 2011, even in 2013 it was anemic and nothing outside of their traditional bastions, from mid 2013 is when they ramped things up and have currently put out there. So 2 years. On Auto-Pilot front Audi, Volvo and Mercedes(these guys have a truck on auto-pilot) are out there and they are not lagging in pure technical terms, as I said deployment wise they have to do the ground work. It does not matter CHAdeMO is supercharger a 20-30 minute fast charging is NOT ideal(too much wait and too much screwing the battery), and people should be looking for better solutions.

Fine. Let's say any legacy automaker can deploy an entire network in 2-3 years. When does that start? Will it be starting soon?

Having used both chademo and supercharging extensively they are totally not the same.

One is 1/3rd the speed of the other in real-world usage.

Chademo charges a Leaf (or similar class car) to 80% in around the same time as SuperCharger does for a Tesla Model S, doesn't it?

If you want 100 miles of range, sure.

I can tell you charging chademo on a Model S is much slower.

Of course, but Chademo isn't designed for a Model S, it's designed for more affordable cars with smaller capacity batteries. The market requirement for both a Leaf and Model S DC fast-charge is the same: charge to roughly 80% capacity in 30 minutes.

As I said elsewhere, the Chademo connector can support higher currents when there is a need. When there are Leafs (and Souls? I think think those are the only two in the US on Chademo) with 200mi range batteries, I'm sure we'll see the existing chargers upgraded to the higher current capability.

You sure about that? When the model s chademo adapter came out Teslas were breaking chademo stations left & right because they weren't engineered to handle 25min @ 45kw.

I'm not aware of and chademos above 60kw today while Tesla has a while infrastructure deployed right now.

Nissan has tried this with the Leaf and hit hasn't worked well. Dealerships aren't incentivized to provide charging and I don't see that changing.

Also there is no currently deployed charging standard that comes closer to SuperCharger. Chademo is 60kW spec but usually 40 or 50 depending on how downrated the charger has been. I've never seen less than 118kW on a Supercharger and had multiple Chademo's that have throttled down to 35kW in some cases.

It's going to take years to build out that infrastructure while Telsa continues to deploy SuperChargers and Destination Charging.

> Also there is no currently deployed charging standard that comes closer to SuperCharger. Chademo is 60kW spec but usually 40 or 50 depending on how downrated the charger has been. I've never seen less than 118kW on a Supercharger and had multiple Chademo's that have throttled down to 35kW in some cases.

Chademo deliberately selected 50kW as being optimal given the cars using the charger and the infrastructure available; the connector is designed for up to 200A (up from 125A at present) which would yield 100kW.[0] My understanding is that the CCS connector is being deployed at 200A now. I don't know what you're definition of "close to" is, but I would consider 100kW and 118kW to be close.

[0] http://www.chademo.com/wp/technology/optimal/

Business model for a dealership involves buying a lot of cheap land on the outskirts to provide space for a giant parking lot, a service station, room for all the trucks to load and unload, etc. Space around them is usually bought by other dealers, so it can be branded as an auto mall. In most cities you usually have to go out of your usual route to visit a dealership.

Tesla superchargers require less real estate footprint and are next to freeways and frequently next to Starbucks and some casual restaurants.

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Autopilot hardware costs under $1K. Of course its getting the required cameras and ultrasound sensors. Even if you don't pay for the autopilot feature, it contributes to the 40 million/miles/month of Autopilot data Tesla is collecting.

I think people greatly exaggerate how easy it is to catch up to Tesla for an established player. GM, Ford, BMW, Mercedes might have 100 years of deep knowledge in ICE engine design an manufacture. But that knowledge is worth nothing with an electric car which is completely different. Tesla is the company with the longest experience here. Not only that but they changed the fundamentals about how you build a car. They make most stuff in house and have very quick turn over times. They can do tweaks in 5 minutes which the competitors require a month to change due to the reliance large number of external suppliers. The competition is weighted down by legacy requirements. They need to build common platforms which can be used for both their ICE and electric cars. Tesla has no such concerns to worry about.

Tesla has a simple streamlined operation: They do almost everything in house and they only have to focus on electric cars. No other distractions.

They also have a sort of hidden weapon in the form of SpaceX. They have higher expertise than any other car maker on working aluminum from reusing the knowledge gained from SpaceX. Elon Musk can trickle down a lot of know how from his SpaceX operation. Most car companies are not using synergies from spaceship companies :-D

I look forward to Tesla releasing self-driving ridesharing in the next few years. Can't afford a Tesla? Pay per ride!

That won't be from Tesla, but rather from Uber. They poached Carnegie Mellon's entire robotics department, among others to focus on this goal.

Under circumstances, possibly, if they're not sued out of business first.

http://tesloop.com/

http://www.techinsider.io/elon-musk-hints-tesla-may-enter-ri...

Tesla CEO Elon Musk seemingly confirmed on Tuesday that the company is working on a strategy for getting into transportation services.

During Tesla’s third-quarter earnings conference call, Musk was asked if the company was planning to get into an Uber-like business. Musk tried to keep mum, but when pressed he hinted that the company was at least entertaining the idea.

“There is a right time to make announcements and this is not that time,” Musk said during the call.

He added that the strategy for such a service was not yet “fully-baked,” which implies the company does in fact have some semblance of a strategy.

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