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I wonder if a project to build an open replacement firmware for DVRs, along the lines of OpenWRT, would gain traction.

Possibly.

Part of the problem though is that there is not a full toolchain. You could replace the DVR app, but the OS is still going to be crap.

I had a very quick go at updating the firmware with Juantech and it failed. There is some check in place to prevent this.

I did one openwrt-based CCTV for a client, it's certainly possible, this one seems using hisilicon chips.