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Comment by mc32 | Hacker News Reader

What does Google see that WebVan did not and Peapod and the USPS do not? Groceries tend to be low margin and relatively heavy goods.

[And, it takes me half hour to an hour to do my shopping, and that's knowing what I want to buy in advance, knowing the store. There is not much room for profit in this scenario, except charging value added rather than flat fee. I mean they are partnering with local grocers rather than automating food stores]

If anyone has the reach and network it'd be the USPS (although their fleet would have to be modified to carry perishable goods).

Seriously, they've been hemorrhaging money, why doesn't or hasn't the USPS looked into the growing same-day delivery market (beside their Amazon deals). Are their unions holding them back, because if they are, it's shortsighted. They should have logistics down to a science.

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It seems to make sense for having a fleet of self-driving cars. I think they're gonna go head to head with Uber within a decade.

That would make sense if the grocery bags were waiting to be picked up for delivery without that adding any additional cost (as I mentioned, it takes me (quite some) time to do my own shopping, imagine shopping from a list in a store you might be unfamiliar with)

Let's say $300 shopping list (and cost of transport is 0):

Grocery store profit: $6.00

Time to shop for $300 of groceries: 40 mins.

Dollars/hour/40mins: ?

Where is the profit here? $10/mo subscription does not cover it. Ads, coupons?

That's not how Google Express works. Do you live in the bay area? You have to see the ops yourself.

Membership is $95/yr, $35 min, $3-5 for rush delivery.

They get the same data feed as anyone else, just check Curbside's website and see how their Target product listings are the exact same items and same pricing.

Most of the available items are only pantry stuff, cans, jars, boxes. You can splurge but it's gonna be rare to hit $300 buying $2 to $8 items to get there.

Costco has the ball most together. They've carved out a section just for Express deliveries. Boxes, tapes, most of the common items are already stocked. Costco employees are assigned to Express duty, pick, pack, and leave it for the Express drivers to pick up. Easy peazy.

Local delivery is commoditizing to about $5 per delivery, Postmates just dropped to about $5, DoorDash is about $5, whoever's dispatch makes their vig of a few percents just by matching demand to supply. Google's strategy is just dominating by putting the big capital investments into the fleet whereas the other guys have to rely on iffy relationships with 1099 contractors.

How is this different from Webvan?

Lots and lots. The unit economics are there.

Will this work?

Yes. But only when you have the money to wait and last it out and have an automated car trick up your sleeve.

- Reduced need for stocking staff

- Less stores needed, just distribution centers. You could have your suppliers deliver in shipping containers and have your order picking robots (in a few years) pick straight from the containers. All you'd need is a big-ass warehouse with loading docks and a few cranes.

- Customer targeting and upselling. I'd spend more of my money in a store that would know my food preferences, family makeup, habits and that would advise me on what to cook. I'd even pay for a service that would let me pick, say on Sunday, what to eat for the rest of the week (guided by good suggestion algos of course) and would then deliver the groceries for that in one or more deliveries over the week. But even without paying for that service, it would let a supermarket get near 100% of a certain customer's total spending on groceries.

They could have devices similar to those used in distribution warehouses that direct pickers from aisle to aisle, picking multiple orders at a time.

USPS is not allowed by congress to compete in those markets. Their charter and monopoly is quite narrow. It is definitely not the unions, a lot of republicans in congress want to see it die (e.g. By requiring very aggressive leech ding of pensions).

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