It doesn't even have to be at the top. I just used names that are recognizable. We could be talking about high-school track & field and the point would still stand.

In any case, what I am trying to say is that you seem too quick to pin the lack of performance in the "common workplace" on the individual, when there are so many other parts on the system that can and should be analyzed. What the others and I are saying is "no, we can't say that poor performance 'will very possible transfer to the other position". Especially if you have access to the people that worked with them and can have a deeper look at the context, it makes no sense to be looking at past performance to judge potential.