The optimum strategy would be to create a regional organization with standardized trade rules, tariffs and other co-ordination structures.

Since it is clear that the optimal economic outcome is not being selected, the optimal Political outcome will win.

EDIT: to elaborate on what I mean. I think that this event has more to do with political points being earned, and poor leadership than it has to do with actual good economic sense.

In such an arena, most of what the HN crowd tends to be focused is less applicable.

What I expect to happen is that life will continue as normal. Any premium which was built into the Pound due to reduced transaction costs with the EU will be priced in very quickly.

What matters is what penalties the EU decides to apply on the UK, in order to set a precedent. I expect the precedent to be onerous - sufficient for the UK to pay with its larger economy, but much harder to cover for any smaller state planning to leave.

Unfortunately this is the worst kind of conjecture - guesswork by someone not currently in the market.