The problem is that individuals often cannot see the bigger picture. It also does not necessarily follow that individuals benefit from aggregate wealth creation. If you are unemployed (by technology) and can no longer feed yourself or your dependents why do you really care that goods are now available cheaper and can be delivered 247: you still can't afford them. If in your lifetime technology only brought starvation upon you, why should you care that future generations will benefit. Last I checked, we are not indoctrinated from young to be altruistic martyrs for humanity nor do I recall that being a basic human instinct either.
So displacement is a somewhat inevitable outcome from mass technological disruption. It's very easy to champion progress when you're on the winning side, and ultimately progress is important. It falls to the powerful (the wealthy like Gates and Zuckerberg) and nation States to protect the interest of all citizens to make sure everyone's basic rights are still preserved. Especially over trasitory eras such as the current one.
I don't think we have enough examples from history to make this in some kind of universal law. Mass prosperity might just as well NOT be achieved.
A link to the video of the talk is at: https://www.safaribooksonline.com/library/view/strata-hadoop...
If you'd like to read more on the topic, the book Big Data is at https://www.amazon.com/dp/B009N08NKW/ (or a synopsis, for free, is at https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2013-04-03/rise-big-...)
Have stories to tell about how AI is changing business and society? Please reach me via twitter at @kncukier
Thanks!
The talks were filmed so they may be accessible somewhere, though I know the speaker writes on the subject so his writing may be more readily accessible.
As a free tip/shameless preach a book which has impacted me greatly recently is Ill Fares the Land by Tony Judt[1]. The more people that read this book, the better.
[0] http://conferences.oreilly.com/strata/hadoop-big-data-eu/pub...
[1]https://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/0143118765/ref=mp_s_a_1_1?ie=...
I see a pattern:
- Windows desktop monopoly -> MS makes billions while other software companies get crumbs
- FB social networking monopoly -> ad money collects to FB while regular businesses struggle to make advertising pay
- Apple store -> millions of app devs lose money while Apple becomes the most valuable company on back of their apps
- Recording labels have huge market share -> artists are poor and lose the rights to their own creations by signing unfair contracts
- Middle east oil money in the hands of a few arabs -> massive unrest in the region, state sponsored religion indoctrination, culminating in wars and terrorism
It so happens that accumulating massive wealth and power in the hands of a few leaves the rest of the population high an dry, frustrated and with lots of issues.
- Facebook employs thousands and thousands of people.
- Apple employs thousands and thousands of people.
- Record labels employ thousands and thousands of people.
- One of these things is not like the others.
With better and fact-based education we can solve a lot. I don't mean training for jobs, I mean education as a means to, say, reduce killing each other or making more efficient use of earth's resources.
For instance, the best way to fix the problem of people flocking to extremist leaders is more education on all sides. The unknown is scary enough for many people that it's used for them to be led to believe simplified but factually wrong explanations for issues they face.
You're incorrect about what it presumes; valuing facts is something most people need to be taught. That's why there's always a push for education, otherwise you end up with Trumpism.
Telling people from another tribe that they are ignorant has never changed anything.
The biggest threat to their wealth would be a collapse of the current society -- the status quo -- and so, although they may have SOME material goods (okay, more than most others), the vast majority of the value of what that they have is merely on paper or "stock," whose value is determined entirely socially.
Of course, their value could vanish in an instant if society no longer believes in their wealth or the system that proliferated it.
Granted, it would take a "total collapse" (and resultant lack of faith in our economic system) for this to happen, but historically, societies don't fail gradually or softly, they implode.
A real life example of such a loss of "faith" in a massive quantity of wealth that isn't civilization-scale such as the fall of the Roman Empire (as recent in history as it is) on an individual-scale would be Theranos and the instantaneous deflation of Holmes' net worth from a socially propped-up "cool billion" to zilch.
People en masse generally don't take too well to mass corruption. Over history, the average lifespan of a social empire has been 300 years, and the western-dominated global sociopolitical landscape est. 1776 (largely a product of American military superiority and foreign interventionalism) is now getting a little long in the tooth.
It's in their best interest to keep giving the masses their opiate.
We live in the real world so change doesn't happen overnight, but if truck driving becomes out-moded significantly faster than a truck driver could learn a new skill, then the displaced population will riot because they worked hard and did nothing wrong their whole lives and machines replaced them anyway.
And this is true for nearly all blue-collar and some white-collar workers, whose jobs would be threatened by advancements and automation made in their sector
[1] http://www.trucking.org/News_and_Information_Reports_Industr... (2010)
At least for part of it, in the US, almost half of spending is spent on welfare: social security and healthcare[0].
The problem is more nuanced than just "cutting defense" to make it 29% instead of 25%. I'm a pretty liberal guy, and I think a public option would eventually be cheaper in the long run than obamacare or what we had before, but I am under no delusion that simply throwing more money at the problem will fix it.
Academia requires more money, I agree. But what accounts for a quarter of spending already requires new ideas, not more money.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_budget#/...
Obviously those that do have do not want to distribute what they feel belongs to them, but this has been the case for forever. It's just a question of 'how much is too much'.
IMHO, Einstein had a great idea. While he's not known for his political beliefs, he did have them, and theorized a societal structure where the richest person could be up to, but not more than 10 times richer than the poorest person.
While it's obviously difficult to impossible to easily implement, I do believe that having a more evenly distributed society would solve most of humanity's violence problems, and maintaining some level of hierarchy based on merit/effort allows for healthy growth and positive incentives.