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For me there is one single data point that shines brightly through all this noise: we are well into 2010 and nobody has Flash running well on a mobile device. Not even the mobile companies that want it.

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That's because that's the misdirection. 3.3.1 is the clause that's important, but it's not about running Flash on mobile devices. It's about Apple being disintermediated and losing lock-in with their developers.

Are you saying that Apple vs. Flash started with 3.3.1?

Apple's policy of banning Flash doesn't really bother me, but 3.3.1 really, really, does. Having Flash on the iPhone as a means of cross-developing apps is the most interesting way for Flash to be on the device, for me: it would mean a lot of creative and fun casual games would be more easily available for me to play.

Video, I think, is a red herring; it's easier for web sites to switch to a different, HTML5-compatible embedding scheme than it is to rewrite Flash games in Objective C.

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