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We humans have a hard time reasoning about correlation and causation. Superstition comes so naturally.

That's because causation is really hard to reason about. Often times it's not that A causes B or B causes A, but C causes both, or A and B causes each other at the same time.

No. You're correct, causation is complicated, A-Z and all the greek letters too are part of a single cause. But the situation is worse than that.

The reason humans are superstitious is that we don't seek answers, we seek narratives. We seek to explain without disrupting what we already believe. We might see the real cause and effect and rewrite what we see to fit what we want.

You sound like someone who's read The Black Swan. If you haven't, though, you probably don't need to.

"We are pattern-seeking story-telling animals." -- Ed Leamer in "Macroeconomic Patterns and Stories"

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