Your analysis of small non-profits matches my experience both searching and applying. I'll add that even the tech agencies that serve these non-profits want people with a specific set of relatively old skills, as HN would think of them, that are still really well-known. Wordpress and Drupal are popular. I guess this is doubly true for the non-profits themselves, which have more specific needs and less flexibility.

Some government work is fine. I'm avoiding any federal work under the incoming political leadership, but that's a complex situation and reasonable people can disagree. Most state or city government work is fine with me, but I want to relocate and I assume these places aren't interested in hiring remotely. Moving to a large state capital might be a good idea if I decide to move without something lined up.

My technical background is a little scattered, so while I'm a good developer in a general way, I'm unlikely to be the first choice if an organization needs a specialist in any specific thing. I suppose anyone hiring me remotely needs to either be confident in their ability to assess general technical aptitude, or large enough that they can afford to be wrong, neither of which correspond well to the places where I'm applying.