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Comment by chegra | Hacker News Reader

I have to say this again, be careful with giving advice like this. To me, what should be encourage is people to think for themselves; just as you can figure out this start up game most other's can too. 41% of Entrepreneurs succeed on their first go; I think advice like this just taken as static algorithm for success without considering the context of your situation can be very detrimental.

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I agree. This was my own experience, obviously. People debate these sorts of questions all the time (i.e. what's best X or Y?") and I think there are a couple of things that hardly get any attention that are more important factors than any particular decision...and those are: tenacity and intelligence.

  > 41% of Entrepreneurs succeed on their first go;

That's awfully precise. Not 40%? Not 42%? What is the sample size? Where did you get the data?

That's the source: http://www.kauffman.org/uploadedFiles/ResearchAndPolicy/TheS...

You claimed that 41% of Entrepreneurs succeed on their first go, and then quote the above link, but now you've got me very confused. The paper says that of those being surveyed, 41.4% were on their first business.

Interesting paper, but I don't think it supports your assertion.

For example, it may be that 100% of entrepreneurs succeed on their first go, but that 41% of those interviewed are on their first (of many yet to come).

On the other hand, it may be that all of these on their first business will fail, but potentially go on to succeed on subsequent attempts.

In short, that 41% doesn't at all say that 41% of entrepreneurs succeed on their first try.

Can you explain your thinking further?

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