Time will tell, but I don't see this as being the same type of misguided hype.
I'm not sure it's that these things never "caught on". I just think they were marketed poorly as serious games, and so only non-serious gamers bothered with them. Then, like with all games, we got bored and moved on, and the market never innovated further (though there was a Kinect Sports 2).
(My personal theory on that one is that the input lag really hurt the platform. Plus, when looking for Kinect developers, you're looking for people who are good game developers AND physically active - testing on physical games is hard work! That narrows the pool.)
However, it's interesting to note that what's pretty much universally regarded as the best Kinect game ever came out this year: http://www.theverge.com/2016/7/13/12173190/fru-game-review-x...
Good luck trying to fake out the monsters in my game, Left-Hand Path, with tiny wrist motions - it's move or get dismembered time :)