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Comment by DanBC | Hacker News Reader

We know that processed red meat causes cancer.

The quality of the evidence is very very good.

The strength of the effect is weak.

Because the quality of the evidence is now very good (as good as for smoking) the WHO information was widely misreported as "red meat as bad as smoking".

This is likely to make web searches less useful.

Here's something from the English NHS about it: http://www.nhs.uk/news/2015/10October/Pages/Processed-meat-c...

> A key statistic provided by the infographic is that if everyone stopped smoking, there would be 64,500 fewer cases of cancer a year in the UK, compared with 8,800 fewer cases if everyone stopped eating processed or red meat.

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> If everyone stopped smoking, there would be 64,500 fewer cases of cancer a year in the UK, compared with 8,800 fewer cases if everyone stopped eating processed or red meat.

Even that statistic greatly overstates the risk of red meat as compared to smoking. Because it's not adjusted for the percentage of the population that smoke vs the percentage that eat processed or red meat.

In the UK, only 16.9% currently smoke[1] but I believe that the great majority eat meat[2]. (I'm surprised how few people smoke now -- I remember a time when most people smoked.)

The statistic makes it sound like you're 7 times more likely to die from smoking than from processed or red meat (64500/8800 = 7). But if my math is correct, the death ratio should be more like smoking being 39 times worse (64500/16.9%) / (8800/90%) = 39).

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prevalence_of_tobacco_consumpt...

[2] I didn't find a statistic specifically about red meat or processed meat, but only 10% of the population are "meat-avoiders" according to this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_by_country#Unite...

Forgive my ignorance, but what exactly is the definition of processed red meat? I assume it lies somewhere between gnawing on a freshly slaughtered animal carcass and buying beef jerky form the corner store, but I'm not sure where, exactly.

"Methods of meat processing include salting, curing, fermentation, and smoking. Meat processing includes all the processes that change fresh meat with the exception of simple mechanical processes such as cutting, grinding or mixing."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Processed_meat

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