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Comment by motivic | Hacker News Reader

I work for Capital One, and this is almost surely pure speculation. I wouldn't even call it rumor because there is no trace of evidence to this speculation.

I say put your skeptics head on if the title of the article ends in a question mark (and also sources cited do not directly discuss the matter at hand).

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I used to work for Microsoft. A lot of shit happened at that company that I didn't find out about until I read it in the paper, like everyone else. Kinda like how the baristas at Starbucks have absolutely no idea what I'm currently working on for that company.

So as I put on my "skeptic's <hat>", the first thing I'm skeptical about is a random employee of unknown level telling me it won't happen.

How about a wager?

My first wager is that you're not in a position to know if it's being discussed.

My second wager is that it happens. For starters I'll bet you $100 with 40:1 odds that it does happen. Happen defined as "Both parties announce intentions to merger/acquire within 6 months from today."

You are 2.5% confident that something is going on that the parent poster doesn't know about? While I applaud your willingness to bet, your first 2 sentences indicate much more confidence than your proposed odds.

I think the odds in my proposition give me sufficient edge to proffer the bet.

But you implied there was a 97.5% chance that the parent was right. You basically agreed with the previous post, while saying they were wrong.

I didn't agree. He said it would not. I said it could. I said it was more likely than he said and I would put money on it.

Your use of basically is ambiguous.

If I say there is a 97.5% chance that the parent was correct, am I more agreeing or disagreeing? WEP standard says that anything above 94% is "almost certain", so you 'basically' said that it was "almost certain" the parent was correct.[1]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Words_of_estimative_probabilit...

These words you are putting in my mouth don't fit.

97.5% probability is nothing like almost certain.

I think we just have different viewpoints on precision and language, friend. I still like you!

Are you laying or taking the 40:1. If you're laying the 40:1, I'm in, of course!

I get $4k if it does, I pay $100 if it doesn't (by 6 months end).

I'm wondering what's the easiest, legal (for US residents) way to sign this type of bet.

No, I'm not referring to complex steps involving some form of cryptocurrencies. I'm talking about something super, super easy.

p.s. I am happy to take the bet at 1:2, not at 1:40.

One thing i wonder about is: Amazon has many initiatives where a reduced cost capital(say by 3%, the average net interest spread) , could mean a huge difference for itself . Plus it has tons of data(and software) which affords it to manage risk extremely well.

As for scale,let's be optimistic and say it's the whole of Amazon's gross-merchandise value(GMV) , i.e. $225B in 2015 , i.e. not that far from capital one's assets.

So in theory, Amazon could offer more attractive online bank account plan from most anybody, by sharing it's gains with the users. And the marketing is free.Heck i can even see activity based marketing happens - "if X people from this neighborhood open saving plans with us, we'll start-a-local-warehouse/parcel-locker/grocery-service-point/etc"

So why would they want to acquire capital one?

I don't know your role position at Capital One but unless you were way up in the management chain, why do you think you would have even heard anything about this?

Generally any information regarding an upcoming merger or acquisition is extremely tightly controlled. Unless you work in the executive team or a team that would be directly involved in a potential merger, it's unlikely you'd hear anything.

I too work at a large, public company. My company acquires companies semi-regularly and I've never heard about any of them ahead of the public announcement.

"Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no." - Betteridge

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge's_law_of_headlines

If only I'm as opinionated and eloquent.

Any journalist who dares to ask a question is wrong.

can amazon even afford to buy ALL of CapOne? Is it just their banking business?

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