Hacker News Reader

Comment by snitko | Hacker News Reader

What really pains me is that people participating in such protests don't understand neither the dynamics, nor history and are thus unnecessarily hurt. Any leader stays in power so long as he knows where the money is (controls money flows), pays his key supporters and the army/police.

Money in Russia is primarily oil money and this source is not drying up any time soon. More importantly, the people fighting for changes are rarely the ones who can later be in power, but are rather used by others to get in power. Even if they get in power, it's very unlikely they are good at managing economy and the country as a whole, since they didn't understand the dynamics of political power in the first place.

For those interested I highly recommend reading "The Dictator's Handbook: Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics". It's eye opening for anyone who thinks protesting or voting can change anything.

View on HN

In Ukraine, the corrupt leader controlled a lot of economy, paid his supporters, and supported the police just fine (Army decided to stay neutral).

People overthrew him regardless.

I have close friends and relatives in both countries, and I think in Russia that’s nearly impossible. Not because of oil and gas revenues, because people. They aren’t dramatically different, the cultures are close, but there’s some statistically significant difference.

Russians are more inclined to believe they cannot change anything, just like the opinion you expressed in your comment.

Ukrainians are more inclined to stand against violence. When riot police brutally attacked peacefully assembled teenagers in Ukraine in 2013-nov-30, it sparked the main phase of the country-wide protests. Today riot police brutally attacked peacefully assembled teenagers in Moscow, and the only reaction I see so far is on Facebook.

This is absolutely completely untrue. I've heard this so many times from my Ukrainian friends. If Russia and Ukraine swapped populations somehow, but leaders would remain the same I guarantee you would do absolutely nothing in the circumstances in Russia.

In Ukraine, the leader was weak, the opposition well financed, the quality of life was less satisfying than in Russia and there was a clear window of opportunity. And even then it all ended up with a different group of corrupt oligarchs taking control. In essence, nothing changed in Ukraine, at least for the better. You can't blame war for everything.

> Russians are more inclined to believe they cannot change anything, just like the opinion you expressed in your comment.

First of all, this would clearly be considered racist by some, but luckily I don't care. I'm sure there are people in Ukraine who are also level-headed and realistic enough to consider how real politics works. Again, I highly recommend the book to get a realistic perspective.

Finally, just to make it clear, I do not support any kind of war and have nothing against Ukraine wanting to break ties with Russia.

Any leader stays in power so long as he knows where the money is (controls money flows), pays his key supporters and the army/police.

This video is actually based on the book.

I should also add I watched Mr. Navalny speak and he is:

1. Not a good speaker. 2. Very populist. 3. Doesn't understand economics. 4. His whole campaign is based on criticism of the incumbents and he has very little to show for how he would actually manage the country or solve problems. 5. He is against returning Crimea to Ukraine (which is understandable, given the general sentiment in Russia, he'd lose a lot of votes)

Reply on news.ycombinator.com