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> Remember, you're no longer a long term investor, you can't ride out ups and downs, you have to keep paying the bills during down periods, excaberating your losses

I don't know about you, but most people in my social circle intend to retire between 55-60 and that leaves 25-30 years of retirement, so definitely still in the long term investing range.

When I retire, I don't plan to adjust my investments until I get past 80.

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Doesn't matter what you call it, if you're withdrawing money every month your portfolio should be mostly bonds.

Model it yourself, calculate what a 30% drop in the stock market next year would do to your portfolio. If you're a long term investor, an 80/20 stock/bond split makes sense.

But if you regularly withdraw 4% of original capital inflation adjusted, a model that incorporates the possibility of a 30% drop will show you why you need more bonds.

And show you why 4% is unrealistic and why a 5% annuity is a good deal.

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