>I did a ton of analysis, and basically at the end of the day it came out to "will they hit their targets in Q3/Q4 2016 and Q1/Q2 2017?"

The analysis upon which you went "all-in" on Tesla rests on a non-GAAP "delivery" figure (rather than a sales number), covering a few quarters, 1 year before the first model 3 is even built? I'd be interested in seeing that work. What did you think when they missed 2016 delivery estimates by 5%?