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The evidence shows, on average, divorcees end up poorer and less happy than couples who stick together through tough times.How do you even measure the latter bit? Happiness is entirely based on self-reporting, and a divorcee can't say "I would have been happier had I stayed together", because they literally cannot know that. Likewise, someone who stuck it out can't say "I would have ended up less happy had we broken up", because, again, that's unknowable. They can guess, and of course people will want to believe they made the right choice sticking it out, so I could see why they'd report greater happiness.
I think your point about people being great at self-deception cuts both ways: they may not be able to accurately predict whether or not a divorce will make them happy in the future, but they're also likely to rationalize the decision to stay as being better when they have no real basis in doing so.
Regarding poorness and:
> The evidence shows, again on average, the children of divorcees are worse off.
I think it's worthwhile examining why that is the case. It's telling that we say that people who have divorced have "failed" marriages. It's a negative. It creates shame, and people feel pressured, due to religion or other social reasons, to stay together. Could it not be that people end up poorer and children end of worse off after a divorce mainly because we as a society do not have the proper support structures in place to keep divorcees from experiencing negative outcomes?
And hell, a decent amount of the "poorer" bit could be ascribed to the cost of the divorce itself, including court fees, lawyers, etc. Alimony also ends up being "inefficient": a friend of mine got divorced a few years ago and was required to pay alimony to his former spouse. The end result was the the money was not enough to bring her up to her standard of living during marriage, and the expense on his side was enough to drag his standard of living down as well.
As an aside, do you have any references that support your claims? I'm very interested in reading them.