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> One of my favorite things about the stock market is you know exactly how good you are at all times. Your bank roll is your track record and its very black and white

In the very long run, yes. But if you apply this to a short term (a week? a month?), that might lead to a rather fatal ego boost. I believe, that this is something that everyone interested in trading has to be aware of.

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A fatal ego boost or a missed opportunity. As the old saying goes, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

From my experience (i work in trading) that saying is more often used by people who had their ass handed to them by the market and don't want to admit they were wrong.

The market doesn't just go irrational. There are always reasons, just that sometimes they are non-obvious even in retrospect.

Yeah, I don't work near trading, but for me it has always meant that you can be "right" about the long term trend but really wrong about the timing. And the timing is just as important.

Markets don't go irrational? Ever heard of the Tulip bulb craze or the dotcom bubble?

In fact, one could argue that markets are fundamentally irrational since no one has perfect information!

The only rationality is the reaction to change!

The evidence for the Tulip bulb "bubble", while oft-cited, is actually questionable.

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