Comment by TomOfTTB | Hacker News Reader

Comment by TomOfTTB | Hacker News Reader

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Honestly I don’t think Facebook will be that hard to kill because at its root it is a social movement and all social movements die based on two basic facts.

1. Kids rebel against their parents and don’t want to use the same things their parents use. Ironically this issue will be exacerbated by Facebook’s desire to force people to make everything public (“I’m grounded because my Mom saw those pictures you took at the party last night”).

2. The young are still building their social graph and can be more open to new things. So all those things that tie people to Facebook won’t be relevant to kids growing up today.

So new generations come into the market both inclined and able to pick new movements and hence unseat the existing ones.

Right now Facebook looks invincible because they have no real competition. They did a very smart thing in creating an API. In doing so they’ve tricked startups into making Facebook stronger with apps rather than creating competing solutions. So all Facebook has to do now is fend off the pathetic attempts at competition from large companies who aren’t agile enough to compete. So they have no real competition and kids have no real alternative.

But if an industrious startup with innovative ideas comes to market targeting the youth demo I think they could kill Facebook pretty quickly among that group and become dominant as that group grows up.

I don't agree with point 1. As a teacher (aged 11+), I can tell you most of the kids I know deserted myspace and bebo for facebook. Perhaps they want to be more grown up - kids want to be adults. And I am sure kids are way better with their privacy settings.

Point 2 - agreed - Facebook can be beaten. Some young upstart will come up with something kids want more. I doubt finer privacy control will clinch it, or more openness.

You make a good point but as I thought on it for a while I came up with this question: Do kids want to be the same kind of adults as their parents?

In other word, I can see your point that kids want to be more grown up. But kids do tend to rebel too. So if both of those are true the only explanation I can come up with is that kids want to be better adults. They want to one-up their parents by doing things better than they do.

Which I think is consistent with my theory in that they'd be drawn to a new Social Network and abandon Facebook to prove that they found a new social network that is way better than Facebook

(Also keep in mind Facebook started as a youth movement among College students. That doesn't necessarily apply to 11 years old but it's worth a mention)

Probably worth more than a mention. What if there was a new social network exclusive to college students (i.e. no parents or future bosses or people from high school)? It might not supplant facebook, but it is a model that has been proven to work.

"You make a good point but as I thought on it for a while I came up with this question: Do kids want to be the same kind of adults as their parents?"

My opinion is yes: They want cars and motorcycles, and houses, and be respected, find friends, find love. The tools they use are just that, means for getting a goal.

I have been teacher too,in general I love kids, and I think is not kids wanting to change, is adults "hating change", halting grow when they get in their comfort zones once grown up.

Another thing to consider is that kids enjoy rebelling, but they also want to have things.

Every kid wants a cell phone no matter if their parents have them or not.

When MySpace was deserted, it was because Facebook was the social network for High School and College students, so it had a cool, exclusive feel to it. Now Facebook has opened it up to the general public, and they're trying to make all information public, so they've killed that and I'm already seeing a newfound lack of interest in Facebook from High School students.

I like your points but I'm not sure FB is just a "social movement". We are on the 2nd generation of mobile phone users. My 15 yo daughter didn't forsake a cell phone because I have one.

In my mind it's an issue of "Enabling Device" vs "Venue". Put it this way. Say your hang out as a kid was a bowling alley you used to drive to every weekend. As you grew up and had kids you took them to that same bowling alley for Family Night. When your kids become old enough to drive they'll probably still use a car but they probably won't choose their parents' bowling alley as their hangout.

Same here. Kids will still use Laptops, PCs and Cell. Phones but probably won't use the same sites as their parents when going on the web. Because the PCs are enabling devices that get you some place while the sites themselves are venues that you go to.

Mobile phones/contracts aren't social graphs in a similar sense that Facebook or IM networks are. If Facebook can become a utility in a similar sense that email and mobile phones are, then it can survive the generation problem.

But i'm sure she'd never get a cellphone just like yours. True?

'The young are still building their social graph and can be more open to new things. So all those things that tie people to Facebook won’t be relevant to kids growing up today.'

I agree. Was talking to a 9yr-old yesterday and he didn't know what a playstation was. Thought he was kidding at first.

I don't think fb can be killed anytime soon though. It's just so big. Migration of half a billion people to another social networking service can't be simple.

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