It looks like structural fault.. two possibilities here: a) debris collision and, b) hardware fault during maneuvering (e.g. Fuel tank explosion, solar panel or antena detachement). The later I think is more likely to happen towards the end of the life of the hardware.. which seems to be the case.. but in other hand we could expect a cloud of smaller debris floating around..

A space weather problem would be a single event upset. Something got flipped to the wrong state and could have burned up (e.g., power electronics). You protect designs against this with circuit design but can't use shielding. Shielding is to reduce total ionizing dose, not single event upsets.