Absolutely, the risk posed by a malfunctioning VM is a systemic risk that applies to the entire platform. So there is a chance that contracts impacted by a VM bug could be unreliable across the pre and post bugfix VM. The insurance contract could be one of these.
However, all things considered, I think it's interesting to contemplate a binary future "contract" about whether there will be a VM-bug-necessitated ETH hard fork in the next 30 days. What would the ideal exchange be to take a position on that future? I think it would probably be a different, but largely similar, smart contracts platform very similar to ETH, possibly even ETC.
Notably the meatspace financial system does a horrible job at identifying much less hedging against systemic risks. Identification is hard because the interactions between multiple regulatory systems and ambiguous and variable enforcement mechanisms are nearly impossible to model or to understand. It's like having a bunch of inter-related contracts all of which run on their own buggy VM.
The meatspace system seems very stable until you realize that it's highly brittle. It's impossible to meaningfully measure firm solvency risk, because the behavior of the "VM" is so unpredictable.