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What is the possibility that this was a deliberate leak meant to obfuscate the true state of the art of what the CIA uses? Would that be too much of the trap of "hyper-competence" or the kind of thing you'd hope-for/expect-from an intelligence service?

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True, keeping your enemies in the dark about your true capabilities is a useful strategy (unless it is a doomsday device, then you should tell the world). Strategic leaks of misinformation is one way to go about it.

Also low-quality exploits could be made on purpose to be intentionally found. The victim finds it and then thinks they are in the clear, while the a more sophisticated real exploit is lurking undetected.

very small chance. They won't go and put a bucket load of these type of tools on a server to leak. Makes no sense at all.

I take it you don't work in high assurance security. You should be more paranoid!

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