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Comment by guildwriter | Hacker News Reader

This is not just about self protection or about blackmailing to keep the regime going. The end game for North Korea has been and always will be the reunification of the Korean Peninsula.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/interrogatio...

This has been North Korea's policy since going back to 1960 under Kim Il Sung. No discussion of what is going on right now as far as NKorea's motivations is complete without mentioning this. Everyone knows what happens to SKorea when the US pulls the trigger on NKorea. People need to start thinking of the ramifications of the US signing a peace treaty and exiting the Korean Peninsula. The status quo of us kicking the can down the line is coming to an end. It's time for people to stop thinking NKorea doesn't have an endgame.

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I think most of the world wants Korean unification. The only big country against that really is China [1]. The US only wants it if South Korea is the model for the North, not China modeling the South after what the North is, their buffer.

[1] https://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2017/04/e...

Interestingly, I don't think South Korea would be very happy to unite.

You don't know South Korea very well then:

> "Having lived in South Korea for the past 15 years, I don’t share most Americans’ confidence that it will always choose America over a North-supporting China. My own impression—bolstered by the ongoing controversy surrounding the stationing of the THAAD missile defense system—is that a growing number of South Koreans would rather see their state’s security compromised than risk their own prosperity.

Let’s not overestimate South Koreans’ attachment to their own state, which a sizable but influential minority still considers illegitimate. The most popular movie in Seoul at the moment is a thriller about a joint North–South effort to catch a criminal ring of North Korean defectors. That plot tells you something right there. The main North Korean character is played for cool by a handsome Tom Cruise type, while his South Korean counterpart is a homely, tired-looking figure of fun. There is a tradition of this sort of casting. The subtext: Serving the North is glamorous; serving the South, not so much. Let’s keep in mind that Kim Jong-un is watching these movies too."

Reunification of the Korean Peninsula is something that has been on the mind of both North and South ever since larger powers made them.

Reunification will have huge costs for South. Also there were already few generations so "family reunion" is not really a motivation anymore.

For elites/high skilled workers/business of North unification is dangerous because they will be useless. For elites/business of South unification gives access to resources and to mainland, but has cost of humanitarian crisis.

Ideal situation for South - "Korean union" where North is independent and has somewhat democratic and calm government.

It was also insanely expensive for west germany (though not as much as here), but it was their goal from the start.

>Germany agreed to pay about 55 billion deutschmarks to the Soviet Union in gifts and loans, the equivalent of eight days of the West German GDP.[1]

Which if applied to US numbers 2016 GDP would be about 0.5 trillion dollars. The same source said the Germans would have paid 100 billion marks or roughly a little under 2 trillion.

[1]:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_reunification

Quickly googling numbers, it get between 100 billion euros and a trillion dollars[2]

[2]:https://www.quora.com/What-would-it-take-for-North-and-South...

The economic ration between the two countries are estimated to be not the 1:3 east and west germany was but more like 1:20 and the norks has half the numbers SK has, whereas there were 1 east german for every 2 west germans.

However that also does not take into account that a united Korea would be a huge economic powerhouse[3] (with a fully developed north, which will obviously take some time), Goldman Sacks estimate that it could have an economy that is bigger than any other G7 country, except the US.

Given that interest rates are super low right now, it might not be a bad idea to get some long interest loans for a unification.

[3]:http://koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/biz/2009/09/123_52202.html

>> The most popular film in Seoul

Does it have name?

I can't find it: http://www.koreanfilm.or.kr/jsp/news/boxOffice_Monthly.jsp?m...

Probably V.I.P. (it comes out top if you sort by week).

Who did you quote?

> China does not want the reunification of the Korean peninsula if it creates a single, larger American ally on its border.

So no, China does not oppose unification, it only opposes one modeled by the US, pretty much the same approach as the US. Also, we have an example of such a regime not modeled by the US - Vietnam.

Vietnam turned out well even after a failed conflict. The reason is mainly market economics and help through investment they have gotten after the war. Vietnam markets have been doing very well [1]. This is similar to what we did in Japan/South Korea etc with investment. The military part in Vietnam is something that wasn't great, the markets after are a success. Ultimately it was a fight against Communism and other things (opium supply issues from '67 Opium Wars that pulled in France then the US, East Asia influence, energy vicinity, trade) and the goal was a market economy with opportunity.

In the end economics and markets where people have comfort and opportunity is all you need to make people happy. In the US we can barely do that at home now so maybe conflict should go back to defense instead of this failed pre-emptive policy and regain focus on building economic opportunity, what people truly love about America.

[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-19/asian-out...

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