You can be sure ... probably

So which one will it be?

On a more serious note: this really depends on the person in question. Not everyone has that state of mind it takes to be extra wary when you find yourself in a similar situation where it went worng before. I've worked with people who made pretty severe mistakes, were pointed out, nodded 'yes', only to just make the exact same programming mistake a few months later. And again, and again.