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Comment by jonlarson | Hacker News Reader

If I understand right, this is basically merging s&p 500 [1] and dollar value index [2]. The value of the dollar has been dropping all year, at a higher rate than the value of the s&p 500 has been going up.

Basically, the market's dollar denominated value is going up, but dollars are becoming less valuable. This combines to mean that market value has actually down this year, not up.

Perhaps op can correct me on anything I got wrong.

[1] http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx [2] http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

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Yes, and as a European, this is very visible in my portfolio. S&P 500 ETF is the worst performing part of my savings portfolio, when nominated in euros. China, Nordics, rest of the Europe & emerging markets are all doing fine.

Of course, the falling dollar price benefits US exports in the future, so it could be a good time to invest in US, now that it has been performing less stellar compared to the rest of the world.

Being in the UK, witnessing the pound devalue massively, my S&P investments have done stupidly well. As have my Japanese index investments. And my European index investments. Global index investments. If I thought the UK was going to sort itself out, I might sell off some of those and put them back into pounds.

That I blew most of last month's pay on European indices suggests I think the Maybot and chums are not done wrecking the UK yet :)

Interest rates likely to rise soon, so pound will likely strengthen.

Interest rates likely to rise soon

I keep hearing that, over and over, for years and years. Eventually it'll be true.

Well I'm just going on what the governor of the Bank of England says, but what do I know eh?

'In the clearest indication yet that there could be a rate rise as early as November, Mark Carney suggested that it was time for the bank to "ease its foot off the accelerator".'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41439349

Mark Carney is a tease. He says that over and over again. Year after year.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/09/14/bank-england-...

But you would certainly like to have some kind of explanation on why the dollar is so weak before calling this a good time to invest? Like - what exactly is going on over there?

The US economy seems to be less dependent on exports as other countries, and the fortunes of US (tech) companies seem to hinge on other things than exchange rates.

OTOH, the US economy is very dependent on one special "export": dollars, which for now the rest of the world accepts to sell goods on credit (see negative trade balance). If the dollar continues to devalue, this mechanism could break at some point.

That is very true. And in general, contrary to what Wall Street at least used to think, I think Trump administration will cause damage in the long run for the US economy, especially if he is re-elected.

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