However, the high turnover for mobile phones has allowed more aggressive changes to the networking stack. Perhaps this, in addition to IPv6, would make something like SCTP easier to adopt widely?
The last dogleg was January 2015. And since then it’s been linear (with a little stall this month) at about 5% of the Internet converting per year. That’s another 15 years to convert the rest, unless there’s a new dog leg up.
Also percentages don’t work the way humans think they do. Especially when the number of devices is constantly climbing. That may just indicate that some fraction of new hardware is ipv6 but little old hardware is being updated.
We may well have ~2 billion machines on ipv4 pretty much indefinitely, slowly being diluted by addition of new hardware.
The economics going forward will be interesting. I've seen some low-end VPSes charge a lower rate for machines that are IPv6-only.
I assume workplaces have a lower adoption rate due to enterprise inertia. Or is there another explanation?
I dove into the world of curve fitting (wee!) and my prediction[1] for 95% IPv6 adoption is around the year 2025: https://imgur.com/a/LyBJn (fitted to the logistic curve[2], x=0 is basically 2010, y is percent adoption)
[1] Which you should completely trust because I've been doing this for all of 20 minutes!
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function#In_economics...
Lets say 20% adoption means we're 40% of the way through the transition. The slope for IPv6 looks better and better every day, but overall it's not a great adoption story for tech that inevitably has to happen. (not to discourage or minimize the all the hard work done in getting IPv6 this far)