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Comment by gwern | Hacker News Reader

> Maybe in Europe there has been a conversation, but not in the US - and the US supplies nearly 80 per cent of the helium used in the world. The problem is that these supplies will run out in a mere 25 years, and the US government has a policy of selling helium at a ridiculously low price.

This sounds like a prediction! 'US helium production will crash to near-zero in 25 years.' http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1686

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This isn't a prediction. It is an observation that a particular stockpile of already-existing and extracted helium of finite, concrete, and precisely known size has been mandated to be sold by 2015, after which there won't be any of this stockpile remaining. It may happen to involve a natural resource but is not the usual sort of "natural resource will run out" prediction at all.

Theoretically, one could make a lot of money stockpiling the stuff now and selling it later. However I doubt I'm the first to notice that. If enough people do that it would at least buffer the shock.

I don't think that's what he is saying at all. In the article, he specifically says the federal stockpile must be sold off by 2015. He also says that US supplies will be gone within 15 years.

2010+15=2025. 2025!=2015. So unless he is having a serious senior moment, he must be talking about something other than the federal stockpile being gone by 2025.

From context - 'supplies', not 'stores' - I read this as a prediction about the US oil industry's production of helium in the course of its operations.

This is in fact a prediction, since many things could change US helium production from ending in 2025; an asteroid could destroy us all, new helium pockets could be found, taxes could shut down US oil exploitation, etc.

>an asteroid could destroy us all,

Well... by that measure, any statement regarding the future is a prediction.

"I'll see you tomorrow!" - but maybe an asteroid will hit overnight....

It certainly is a prediction, if it's not just a meaningless social gesture or wish, contradiction, or tautology.

(Is this not obvious? Then replace your friend with someone who is about to go over the trenches, or has a terminal disease, or say 'I'll see you in 50 years.'. It's just usually so very highly probable that the small smidgen of uncertainty is hidden from us. From the point of view of life insurance companies, making accurate predictions about how long your friend will survive is very serious business.)

So, because a prediction about something once was wrong, all subsequent predictions about that thing must also be wrong?

No. I don't see how you could possibly extract any such interpretation out of my comment. A prominent pundit^Wrespected scientist has made a prediction; I am merely recording it for later judgment.

Yeah, except as noted above, it's a pretty solid prediction. We're mandated to sell all of this stuff by 2015.

Absent a change in the law, it seems like a good guess that we'll sell it by 2015.

This is not climate science, you don't have to have a chip on your shoulder -- you can objectively evaluate this evidence if you choose to do so.

No, its just that when you cry wolf so many times, no one believes you when the wolf actually turns up.

yo :)

common, wolves can't type!

Now that was funny. LOL

Please down vote this to prevent future pun threads. Far too many one liners are getting points lately.

You look like you could use a hug.

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