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Comment by AnimalMuppet | Hacker News Reader

In addition to what dragonwriter said: Even if arrogant people think that, in what way does that mean that there is no natural business cycle?

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I could try answering to that in detail, but others (smarter than me) did that already.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF00843932

As much as I could read of that without a login sure didn't say that there was no business cycle. And, for that matter, observation of the last century or two certainly leads on to think that there is a business cycle.

Maybe, instead of a login-required paper, you could just state a position, and state what evidence you think makes that position reasonable?

I don't deny, there is no business cycle. My point is, that a handful of people decide when the cycle should have it peeks and bottoms. To me it is like: "We don't like winter, so let's warm up the entire planet. And if there is a problem we can always cool it down a bit".

There are 7 billions participants in the global economy and somehow FED pretends it has this magic ball that predicts what will happen in upcoming months. And even if it had, they have no proper tools to react on it properly.

So there's a business cycle, but it's not "natural". Or at least the one we have now is not natural. I can agree with that, actually. The difference is, I think that what we have now is an improvement on the natural business cycle. That thing was vicious.

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