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May I introduce you to the Efficient Market Hypothesis (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis).

I can't tell if you're serious (Poe's Law), but very few economists find EMH to be credible. Did you even read the "Criticisms" section of that wikipedia entry?

I went further and read many books on both the EMH and behavioral economics, which is basically its polar opposite. I believe EMH to be true at a point in time. One of the inputs to the price is market psychology.

So nobody turned a profit by correctly shorting TWIT or FIT as soon as possible or by jumping in on FB when it plummeted to <$20 a share in 2012? Seeing that trend on FB specifically, instead of jumping in on the IPO, is the difference between 4x and 8x your investment by today's valuation.

Tech stocks are regularly IPO'd on pure hype, and the market will regularly turn on them when they don't understand the business model.

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