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I'm probably going to be dead wrong about this (based on my track record), but I think this will be a total-loss.

Facebook is not a hardware provider any more than google is, if google can't put the N1 out there and make it work I have a hard time to understand how a site like facebook would be able to.

They should concentrate on improving their applications on existing mobiles in stead of rolling out a mobile of their own.

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I'm with you 100% on this. I think tech companies see Apple's success and want a piece of that pie. Unfortunately I think they underestimate how much of a fluke Apple's success actually is.

As long as distribution and manufacturing are outsourced to an experienced third-party, I think a Facebook Phone that has service and hardware priced below the iPhone can be successful. It also doesn't have to sell a lot (a small sliver of the mobile pie is massive), would have a lock-in advantage, and would offer considerable advertising potential.

My gut says Facebook wouldn't do this because they seem to have very high product and engineering standards and want to deliver high-end experiences which would require high-end devices and software.

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