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Perhaps the word "if" doesn't mean what I used it to mean? In that case, you should correct my misconceptions on that subject instead.

The X in your "if X then ..." is demonstrated false. That's your misconception.

The historical record talks about what (a) happened in the past, (b) is on record. Neither applies to a rapidly changing climate landscape.

Science doesn't apply to a rapidly changing, politically charged topic.

It's probably not gonna stay that way tho.

"More thoughtful and effective disaster policies are needed because the future will bring many more weather disasters like Hurricane Harvey, with larger impacts than those of the recent past." (From your own link)