Other developments catch up, like compiler technology. Not directly related to branch prediction, but: We are much better at polyhedral optimization than the last time people tried VLIW, for example.
Besides, the last major VLIW push (itanium) DID have SpecEx AND Branch Prediction, and did NOT have delay slots.
What will actually happen, of course, is that everyone will put a ASID/PCID as a tag word into all the relevant caches, they'll stop being probe-able from other contexts, and we'll all keep our deep pipelines and speculation and the cache crisis of 2018 will be just a story we tell our grandkids.
Much cheaper than a paradigm shift based on long-since tried and rejected technology.
You jumped straight from "absence of proof must be proof of the opposite" into as bald a no true scotsmanism as I've seen recently. It's like fallacy central here.
But anyway I think they're making a fair argument. If something takes an enormous technical effort to switch to, and is similar in performance, nobody is going to put in that effort.
This is emphatically not evidence that the idea "doesn't work".
I believe if you could retroactively wipe out the last decade of improvement on x86 and Arm, and redirect all of that development effort to VLIW, the resulting chips and software would perform just fine by current standards.
Spectre is more generally due to load speculation modifying the cache while inside a branch speculation context. Basically it effected every high performance cpu in some way. Note that saying there’s a protected/safe branch instruction is only effective if the default branch code gen uses it, so I’m not including such mitigation’s when saying “not effected”. I believe that to be a justifiable decision.
Essentially the only cpus that weren’t effected were those with very little, if any, out of order execution. None of them are considered to have competitive performance.
But Intel got the government ("legal") backdoors in. Priorities.
(Intel wasn't quite alone in this, though -- at least one ARM core also had this issue.)