Not at the cost that it currently takes. Personally, I ascribe far, far, far less value (if any) to any cryptocurrency mining compared to using the energy for other stuff, or not using it (and not having the mark up on graphics cards).
"but I think eventually it'll settle down to some stable level that is acceptable to all market participants."
The "market participants" would only be those mining crypto, though.
> The "market participants" would only be those mining crypto, though.
Not only them. All people who would use bitcoin in some capacity and benefit from it, they all would be participants in that market. Miners could not exists without them, in the end of the day they get their pay from packing transactions into blocks, no transactions - no pay.
Based on what? And if people aren't getting value from using the blockchain, why are they using it?
> far, far, far less value (if any)
Can you put a number on that, and justify it?
It creates value for individuals at a bigger cost to society - a classic negative externality. Making drug dealing easier is immensely profitable and that's where all blockchain profits eventually come from - everything else is a smokescreen of intermediaries to create just enough deniability to let respectable business participate in the drug trade. It's just like outsourcing manufacturing to countries with lower environmental standards to profit from pollution (another example of something that's negative-value overall, but positive-value for the individual engaging in it).
In what way?
> Making drug dealing easier is immensely profitable and that's where all blockchain profits eventually come from
Do you have a source for this, or is this just what you believe?
Suppressing the drug trade is evidently something that society puts a high value on, given how much society spends on it.
> Do you have a source for this, or is this just what you believe?
Just looking at the whole blockchain ecosystem as a black box: any profit has to eventually come from outside, the rest is just moving that around. Speculators can move value around but aren't creating it. So who are the people getting something actually valuable in the real world from blockchain? I mean sure there's a bit of money laundering and evading capital controls, but the big one is drug dealing.
You're assuming rationality. You're also assuming they're actually paying for the electricity. And you're forgetting that they're not paying for the negative externalities of their energy waste.
"Can you put a number on that, and justify it?"
Take the smallest number you can think of. Now, take a number smaller than that.
Then explain why the people using bitcoin are being irrational. Are the miners processing transactions and receiving fees in return being irrational? Are the people using bitcoin to send and receive funds being irrational? Please enlighten us (and them, apparently).
> You're also assuming they're actually paying for the electricity.
They are.
> And you're forgetting that they're not paying for the negative externalities of their energy waste.
Classic case of moving the goalposts. The same applies to any economic activity requiring the use of electricity.
> Take the smallest number you can think of. Now, take a number smaller than that.
Dodging the question, I see.