Hacker News Reader

There is absolutely no saying what the likelihood of a recession is.

Agreed, unlike every other random event that exists in the universe, recessions are the one thing whose likelyhood cannot possibly be expressed.

View on HN

Problem here is it's not a repeatable experiment. The sample size is 1 world economy.

This is a fair comment and I'm not sure why you were downvoted. However it is not a single random event either. A continuous random process with memory would probably be the most appropriate model, and this would be what Vanguard and others use to make estimations of likelihood.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com