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Comment by cryptobeanbaby | Hacker News Reader

To quote a prior Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle on the floor of the Senate:

"How long would it be before you saw traders investing in a way that would bring about the desired result?"

As in, if one found a way to bet against your car remaining in tact and realized sabotaging your car was cost effective to manipulate their bet, then they reap the market pay out. Is this good?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Information_Awareness_Office#F...

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> As in, if one found a way to bet against your car remaining in tact and realized sabotaging your car was cost effective to manipulate their bet, then they reap the market pay out.

You just described insurance fraud. And just like in insurance, the fix is to be very careful about how you describe the "win" condition—not just "will the car become damaged" but "will the car become damaged through no fault of the owner" (to begin with; the actual terms would be much more complex).

We already have a much more liquid terrorism futures market, i.e. the regular stock market. Worrying about incentives for a large attack from a prediction market is missing the ocean for a hypothetical raindrop.

Incentives in smaller markets (e.g. local elections, or personal car crashes as you say) are super interesting though.

this is the idea behind assassination markets

Interesting...so when enough "life insurance" has been taken out on someone, it becomes more profitable to protect them or to kill them, depending on what the relative odds are, and which side the potential assassins have placed their money?

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