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Comment by liftbigweights | Hacker News Reader

Since at least the early 2000s, every few years, we get the "why companies are leaving SV" or "SV is dying" or "tech center is moving to X, Y, Z". Northern virginia was supposed to depose a while ago. Then it was Austin. And yet, SV is still SV. And the same reasons are given. High cost of living, income tax, etc as if SV hasn't been expensive for a while now and they recently boosted taxes.

You can almost set your clock to SV's downfall and of course the monthly "collapse of china" stories.

As long as tech's most valuable asset is human capital and as long as stanford and the universities in california, oregon, washington, etc produce top talent, SV doesn't have much to worry about. As long as california and its natural wonders and the magnificent pacific ocean is around, it'll keep drawing top talent from around the country.

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Living in Massachusetts and working in the tech scene from about 2005 to present I've noticed changes.

It used to be when someone graduated from a university in the area and wanted to work at a big tech company or startup it was a foregone conclusion they would immediately leave for the west coast. Dropbox founders were from Cambridge but moved west. Facebook was founded in Cambridge, moved west and didn't have an office in Cambridge for many years.

This is definitely not the case anymore. If facebook was founded in 2018 there is a good chance it would stay in Cambridge. The startup scene in Boston/Cambridge has grown immensely especially after the success of Hubspot. Additionally Google, Facebook and Microsoft all have campuses in Cambridge/Boston.

Its not a zero sum game, but real change has certainly occurred.

if Facebook had stayed in Cambridge, there's also a great chance that it won't be the Facebook that you know today. I firmly believe it's possible to succeed outside of SV, but I also believe it's harder.

When Facebook moved Silicon Valley was expensive, but affordable.

It's legitimately hit the point where the cost of living is a true obstacle, as opposed to a priority.

I'm more concerned that the network/talent they needed to grow and scale was more in SV.

I don't especially see it as declining or it necessarily being a big "cause for concern" in spite of a lot of the dysfunction. As you say, northern California is attractive for a lot of reasons only some of which have to do with the concentration of VC money and companies flowing from it.

That said, I actually think it's healthy that there's an increasing dispersion of tech whether new startups or outposts of existing large tech companies. Even if you don't believe in remote work, once a company gets past a certain level of scale it really doesn't matter if the group focused on X is colocated with the rest of the company.

Speaking personally, I'll also say that among people I know I've never run across so many who have left, are leaving, or are thinking of leaving the Bay area as I have over the past year or so.

I'll also say that among people I know I've never run across so many who have left, are leaving, or are thinking of leaving the Bay area as I have over the past year or so.

You’ve also never before been the age you are now. Your peer/acquaintence group is growing in number and age, and naturally will expose you to more people who are ready to move on.

That's fair. It's mid-career and late-career acquaintances for the most part. Many/most of whom are cashing out on real estate. Though I do think it points out a fairly widespread attitude of 1.) The downsides of SF itself have markedly increased and 2.) If you don't feel you have to be in the Bay area for some reason, you may well be better off elsewhere.

I think next spring when people start to realize the impact of the tax changes (SALT deduction) we might see people looking to cash out and move to a cheaper states.

This all may be true, but more opportunities that only existed on the West coast/bay area are presenting themselves all around the US. I was established in the Seattle area, loved it for all of the reasons you describe, but decided to leave because cost of living has reached absurd levels. I moved to the Atlanta/Alpharetta market and live like a king here. It's not the Cascades or the Pacific ocean, but it's got its own charm that I love, cost of living is low and housing is surprisingly cheap. Well paid software engineers didn't exist in this region that long ago, so that's where I see all of this shifting- we now have more regional options if we want to do cutting-edge work where it used to just be the Bay area or NYC.

Reminds me of "Nobody goes there anymore. It’s too crowded."

> 46% of respondents say they plan to leave the Bay Area in the next few years

But they are not leaving empty houses - they are selling them for millions as the world's would be movers and shakers move in.

> But they are not leaving empty houses - they are selling them for millions as the world's would be movers and shakers move in.

Er, not necessarily:

> Last year more Americans left the county of San Francisco than arrived.

Now, granted, that could be a very specific piece of datum and either of the following could still be true:

1) When you include more than just "Americans" the net influx is still positive

2) Even if they're moving out of SF county, maybe they're just moving to, say, Alameda county

But nonetheless that is an interesting tidbit.

Or they are more likely leaving because of insane rents. I've met quite a few people in that circumstance. And I highly doubt that "movers and shakers" are that prevelant.

"Movers and shakers" are not buying these houses - big company types with very high salaries and good savings habits are buying them.

Silicon Valley obviously won't "go broke", but more and more talent and money is being consumed by a few large companies.

The social standing and mobility for those working at large SV companies isn't much to envy. Regardless of absolute pay (which is high by any standard), most are left renting apartments and suffering terrible commutes.

If people measured their compensation in "years of reasonable savings until you can buy a house", they would probably see that their relative compensation isn't so great. Inside SV I would put this number at 10-15 years....elsewhere somewhere around 5.

But the absolute compensation is high so people think they are better off.

I've noticed more and more tech startups moving south out of San Fran and towards Los Angeles. They also have California's universities, magnificent ocean, and a much lower cost of living.

I live in the Bay Area, but grew up in southern California and went to college in LA. I fled LA when I graduated for all the typical reasons. That's all changed in the past 5 years or so. Right now, I'm very professionally satisfied and my partner isn't interested in moving, but going back to LA is on my mind for the first time in a very long time.

One note: the cost of living isn't that much lower. It's definitely below the Bay Area, but it's above Seattle (although maybe not for long, but no state income tax is an advantage).

What people mean is usually not Silicon Valley, or the Bay Area, as a city but as a phenomenon. The technology industry is likely going to be there for a long time. There is just to much inertia, if not substance, for it to disappear overnight. But the "anomaly" of leaving so much value on the table that companies could quickly grow from nothing to world leading is likely gone. Today you are paying for every such opportunity.

For some reason people tend to think that this means that this will happen somewhere else. Like the opportunities somehow transfers somewhere else. That isn't really what happens. We might never have this sort of situation in our lifetimes, or it might show up somewhere outside of our reach. It is very likely that China has been outperforming the west in this regard over the last 10 years. They might continue to do that or not. It isn't really predictable as far as I know.

Addition: Why do people even visit a discussion forum if a simple opinion is going to offend them? The Internet is full of agreeable material you can read instead. And you can close those tabs without suppressing someone else's opinion. But I guess that is really the point of Hacker News these days.

In the early 2000s, we didnt have trillion dollar companies.

Its been a decade from the last economic recession.

Past performance doesnt indicate future performance.

I wont deny that top talent is located in Cali and washington, but the situation has changed an incredible amount.

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