Seems to be trendy these days to say that there is going to be another downturn or collapse whereas in 2007 saying such things you might be branded as a heretic. Ever since 2009 some people made careers out of saying there is going to be a collapse, indeed Zero Hedge has predicted 11 of the last 7 doomsday collapses in the USA since then. I've come to see people like Zero Hedge, Jim Rogers, Peter Schiff, as permabears and as such not too interesting to hear about their particular predictions. The massive inflation never happened, and there was no collapse. But what is interesting is that there is a chorus from the opposite end now, that is saying it is inevitable. That seems unusual. Seems that the concensus among these sorts say that things will probably be fine till about 2020 then it blows up. It being about everything that is overvalued, which is also nearly everything. I actually lost the entire bull run because of fear.

I figure this stuff is being dredged up because of the 10 year anniversary of 2008. The whole world is going to change by April next year, I think the US economy might be chugging along even in spite of the hell everyone else is about to endure in their markets because Trumps tax cut is basically a multi-trillion dollar cash stimulus in the economy that goes broadly to nearly everyone.

I made a couple observations: The fed is now afraid to show its cards. No longer will it give forward guidance because they are not actually sure what they need to do. If they raise rates they risk collapsing prices on debt instruments, if they lower rates they fear inflation. As for protecting the currency, they don't need to do that. The dollar is already a policy nightmare for most of the world as to its current value. Inflation isn't bad at all either. Employment is as good as it gets I think. So why raise rates? But this is their plan. They plan to raise rates all the way to 2020 (familiar year reported) and then... what? Also, I've been seeing ads for adjustable rate mortgages at very low rates. Are they going to reset everyone's mortgage in 2019 causing a huge downwind pressure on home prices? That seems to be the 2006 2007 2008 pattern all over again.