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Comment by nikofeyn | Hacker News Reader

how is tesla the future? they are still figuring out how to reliably manufacture a very small number of stagnant models, whereas every other car manufacturer iterates on multiple models every year, and it all works like clockwork and yields very reliable and safe cars. my kia optima sxl is much less than 50% of a tesla and yet has a higher fit and finish and is more safe.

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`every other car manufacturer iterates on multiple models every year` - that's not actually true. Every other manufacturer maintains the same base for their cars and simply swaps small details around to make it look like you are getting a different car. You are not actually getting anything radically different every year; not even every decade really.

Car companies work on a new model around every 7/8 years with a minor change at the halfway point. Essentially every decade most of the cars gets a complete overhaul.

it is actually true. many manufacturers, say kia, have multiple models. that's a fact. then, they iterate on these models every year. that's also a fact. yes, it is true that they typically have a major design on a specific model that is then kept around for multiple years, but they are still iterating on them rather heavily.

"simply swaps small details" is undercutting the improvements made to the cars, especially with fit and finish, something tesla is rather poor at in my opinion.

my statement is accurate and didn't imply that they redesign the car every year. everyone knows that isn't how it works.

Whether Tesla itself is the future or not, I don't know. I doubt Musk really wanted to be in the business of building cars. I think he did it to change the way everyone else builds cars. Not by decree of some minor increment in emissions standards, but by showing that an electric car would be cheaper, cleaner, faster, and sexier. He did it at a time when Prius was the laughing stock of the evening news, with stories of Prius tipping, and jokes about its drivers. Does Kia really have a higher safety rating than Tesla?

I agree with other comments that things like his fight with the diver was unhelpful. I don't know what was really behind the threat to take things private. Hopefully he learned something and will focus again on what he does best.

Sometimes, established industry needs someone from outside to threaten do do something even if it isn't the most profitable thing to do. I remember when iphones were charging for ringtones and wallpaper. Google's decision to make an open source OS, and threat to build a phone for it if no one else would, changed the whole game.

I'd rather invest time or money in Musk, despite the risk, just because he built the car, landed the rocket, and I want him to be able to do it again. I can respect an investor who just wants a safe return, but they should invest elsewhere and good riddance. He doesn't need that kind of investor always threatening to pull their money if he doesn't play it safer. Maybe instead of going public, he should start the world's largest Kickstarter.

but manufacturing entirely new type of car? somebody gotta take the hit of being the first (most of the time, failing) one to try to do it on this scale. It's the only way forward. I think old and steady auto manufacturers are too stagnant to ever try their hand at such a risky but needed move.

Is it really so? They are not the only one, nor were they the first either, really. Yes, in some areas they were first on the market.

Many of the major ("old, boring") car manufacturers are growing on the EV segment and will overtake Tesla soon if not already there. For example, BMW i3 has sold around 100k units now, about a third of Teslas. Overall the market is dominated by the Chinese manufacturers.

Tesla got where they are because of the media skills and connections of Mr. Musk and the media amplification that follows. With Mr. Musk gone I see rather dire times for Tesla as a company, regardless of whether the company is sold to someone or not.

Full disclosure: have never driven a Tesla but have seen it zoom to a tiny dot in the horizon in a really short time when the traffic lights turned green.

> For example, BMW i3 has sold around 100k units now, about a third of Teslas

Reminds me of the "No wireless. Less space than a nomad. Lame." wrap-up the Slashdot editors gave[1] to iPod upon release.[2]

Any Tesla model is an exciting car, due to performance and handling, the sheen of EV greenness, and the otherness of experience[3], while still being a no-compromise daily driver. Even the range anxiety on longer trips is a strong emotion, count it as a long-term advantage, and yet another spark for endless discussions mentioning the brand. Contrast that with the i3 being mid-to-lower-end model among BMW offerings, and excites close to nobody.

There's no trick in bringing a boring, incremental car to the market; any large company can do it. Nor is it a springboard from rags to riches; it can only work in a slow-moving, low-innovation market, which new car market used to be for decades, but apparently got hot again.

The trick is to bring something that has appearance of new&fresh, that will set an industry-wide trend, will appear to push the envelope, and will make customers into excited fanboys queueing up for the goods, or preordering a year in advance. This is much harder for an established player, due to Innovator's Dilemma, and the inertia of any large organization.

BMW i3 is "yeah, I save a bunch of $$$ on gas, and I can usually fit the groceries in the trunk"; Tesla is, "I GOT 10k LIKES ON MY LUDICROUS MODE VIDEO ON YOUTUBE AND MY SIGNIFICANT OTHER WAS SCREAMING ALL THE WAY ALSO SUNROOF <3 AND I CAN LET GO OF THE WHEEL". Emotions.

Tesla is like the (early) fast and exciting X.com/PayPal among boring old banks with their wire transfers, rather than like umpteenth "also-ran" online payment processor we get every few months.

> Many of the major car manufacturers (...) will overtake Tesla soon if not already there

The IBM overtook Apple for several decades, in no small part thanks to the duopoly with Microsoft and their EEE tactics. And yet here we are, Apple > IBM. However IBM PC was effectively an open platform, while the modern passenger car is at best half-way such. In this race of Tesla against the proverbial Detroit, I bet on Tesla; and I put Elon's antics in the assets column rather than liabilities, with a "any PR is good PR" note.

[1] https://slashdot.org/story/01/10/23/1816257/apple-releases-i...

[2] and then there's the response Dropbox got early on on HN

[3] granted it's not for everybody. Just like Mercedes and BMW fans deride each others' ergonomic&stylistic choices.

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